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Late 2020 and early 2021 with major critical issues. This is the photograph taken byHigher Institute of Health in the last follow-up of this year: the year of the pandemic, which registered a peak of deaths in Italy, well + 84 thousand compared to the average, precisely because of the emergence of the Coronavirus.
As indicated in the report problem, on New Year’s Eve Italy records a particular situation: we are faced with a slight decrease in incidence Covid, which nevertheless remains high, but at the same time we observe a trend towardsincrease in Rt index which needs to be constantly monitored, so as not to become uncontrollable.
Rt index and epidemiological curve
Most regions close 2020 with a moderate or high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic. ButThe national Rt index rises again, for the third consecutive week, touching quota 0.93.
The contagion curve registers a slowdown in its decline throughout the country, which means that the epidemic in Italy is improving but remains serious, especially due to a high impact on health services.
All 3 regions worsened at the end of 2020
3 Regions have an index Rt exceeding alarm value by 1. It is about:
The Calabria, Liguria and Veneto Regions have a punctual Rt compatible with a type 2 scenario in the coronavirus epidemic in Italy. Like last week, the most worrying situation is precisely that of Veneto, which in addition to a one-off Rt greater than 1 has a particularly high incidence. The old “Veneto model” has therefore clearly faded in this second wave.
The 3 regions at risk in January 2021
11 Regions are classified as moderate risk, but of these in January 2021 3 have a high chance of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility remains unchanged, namely:
- Emilia romagna
- Aosta Valley
- Veneto.
Therefore, in these areas, the ISS urges to consider the application of the planned measures, for the levels of attributed risk, also at the end of these holidays, as described in the document “Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the transition phase strategy and planning for the autumn-winter period ”transmitted with a circular from the Ministry of Health of October 12, 2020.
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