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“Conte did not understand that I have nothing to lose, I am not like Salvini who was the Ministry of the Interior. If we lose at court, he has to rule with a weak majority, an agony. And we recovered votes from the opposition. we win, he loses and goes home “: the words attributed to Matteo Renzi by Carlo Bertini in a fund published today by The impression They are quite gloomy open and explosive scenarios on the solution to the government crisis after Ciao in the form of a request for changes to the Recovery Plan issued by the leader of Italia Viva.
“Conte will go home, I have nothing to lose”
The most dramatic explosion of the government crisis stems from the traditional press conference at Palazzo Madama in which the prime minister openly challenged the Scandicci senator: he does not want to give up the delegation to the secret services, he rejects the Month and does not even seem convinced of the reorganization that he had offered to the political forces in recent days. But what infuriated Renzi was the sentence on the crisis that would be brought to the Chamber: “The parliamentary transition is fundamental. It is clear that you cannot govern without the cohesion of the majority forces, you can only get by. As long as I am there. They will always be there. Clear, frank steps, where all citizens can participate and the protagonists will assume their respective responsibilities. ”One way to invite Renzi to do the same as Salvini did: appear in the Senate and explain why he wants to eliminate mistrust in government.
At the time, the prime minister did well. The former Minister of the Interior lost the dialectical challenge and subsequently an alternative majority to the Lega-M5 was formed that allowed him to remain in Palazzo Chigi. And from what Conte said yesterday it is clear that he expects a similar ending, but not the same. Because so many elected members of Italia Viva are not sure of being able to return to parliament in case of dissolution of the chambers. Because the alternative, namely the Draghi plan, seems impractical given that the former president of the European Central Bank is historically reluctant to take on political roles. And because Conte believes that he can then muster the votes necessary to hold out even without Renzi and his men. A creaky plan, however, according to Renzi.
“Of course, Conte must have a secret weapon to do this,” Renzi jokes, when the notebook with the numbers is placed under his nose. “Three from Toti and three others from the UDC give Giuseppi a” big shot “, six votes less, the Senate souk is bad,” he laughs. The abacus of those responsible marks those who have already slipped, while the 18th of Iv should all be there, except perhaps 3 or 4. And also from the offices of the Democratic Party they confirm that the hunt for those responsible scores less than the 18 who are the threshold of salvation. . Therefore, unless Renzian left, the challenge would leave dead and wounded on the field.
And Minister Speranza also has a voice on the situation: according to the Minister of Health “it would be very serious to insert this campaign into political tensions,” he says, “I will confront the problems openly, if necessary in Parliament.” He does not think of a new prime minister: “Giuseppe has done an extraordinary job and is an essential point of balance in the political relationship between the center-left and the M5S.”
The closest elections and polls
But on the other side of the fence there is a bigger mistake: the elections. Republic It tells today in a background that according to a minister of the Democratic Party in Parliament there are motions of rapprochement with government forces and in the event of a crisis even Italia Viva would be destined to split: “In recent weeks the Chamber of Italia Viva wanted to rejoin the Democratic Party in four – says a deputy dem – but we said no “. An Ipsos survey released today by Corriere della Sera and illustrated by Nando Pagnoncelli, it says that Iv is accredited by 3% in the Chamber and 2.9% in the Senate and that in the event of a vote the center-right would win, but little by little if the center-left presented itself together with the 5-Star Movement .
Many, not only in the Democratic Party and among the Five Stars, are willing to bet that not only exponents of the center-right (read Fi) and the Mixed, but that in the end also some of the 18 senators of the Iv-Psi group could assume the role of dissident. and vote the confidence in Count bis, leaving its leader with the party in hand. Now it is premature to speak of any scenario, says a great man from Pd for a long time, who does not believe in a version of Renzi’s killer, because by killing Conte, one of his creatures in the end, he runs the risk of committing suicide. “The Senate is like a Russian roulette wheel,” warns a blue parliamentarian, who prefers to stay at the window, advises Silvio Berlusconi, master of ‘wait and see’ in the midst of a political storm. “I think that especially in a phase like this of emergency we need a stable and cohesive majority”, Riccardo Nencini cuts short with Adnkronos when asked if there is already an agreement between Conte and a ‘responsible squad’ and thinks that between the Renziani it can there are those who vote against.
In any case, according to tradition (think of what happened on December 14, 2010 when Berlusconi’s fourth was saved by three votes in the Cesarini area), any ‘responsible’ is ready to leave only at the right time. Not before, at the risk of getting burned and ruining the entire operation. Abacus in hand, in the Senate, on paper the yellowish ones can count on the 35 senators from the Democratic Party and the 92 from the M5S, plus the 4 from Leu (without Renzian’s team). To find the ‘responsible’ you have to look at Fi 54, Mix 29. Not to mention 9 of the group ‘By autonomies’.