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A great day. For everyone. Even the regional health councilor for Sicily, Ruggero Razza, is radiant after V-day. “It is important that the administration of the vaccine began at the same time for everyone, in Sicily, in Italy, throughout Europe – he said -. really important message to share with all citizens. Even in Sicily we continue with phase one, which includes health workers, social and health workers, nursing homes where there are elderly people and their staff. The next step will be those over 80 than in Sicily they are numerous, more than 350 thousand – says Razza – the vaccination campaign will occupy a good part of 2021 “.
Meanwhile, at the end of March, Italy wants to reach the figure of 13 million vaccinated. The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, said today in an interview with The impression in which he also explains why we have received so few doses compared to Germany, while Undersecretary Sandra Zampa says that it will soon be the turn of officials and the Professor of Medical Statistics at the University of Bicocca, Giovanni Corrao, explains how it will work the ranking and who will be the first to be called for prophylaxis.
The ranking: when will they call us to do the vaccine
First of all, Speranza explains today that the exit from prophylaxis will not represent an “All free” and recalls again that in January the system of red, orange and yellow zones will return to all of Italy. Then he says that the issue of 150,000 doses to Germany and the disparity compared to 9,750 in Italy “is nonsense. The distribution of doses between the different Member States is managed by the Commission itself according to the number of inhabitants. Of 13.45 % of the total vaccines that the EU has bought from the six manufacturers. By the end of the vaccination campaign, in 2022, our country will have received 202 million doses. Immediately, the distribution between individuals States may vary based on completely random factors : the day the communication is made, the distance from the factories. The Pfizers are in Brussels, so they arrive in Germany before us. But the dose ratio depends on each country and is fixed, by contract. ”
Then he announces a novelty that comes from Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca: his vaccine has reached 95% efficacy and therefore already within this week the British Medicines Agency could start marketing. And this news also affects Italy: “According to the contractual plan, in the first quarter we should receive 8.7 million doses produced by Pfizer and 1.3 million produced by Moderna. Total, 10 million doses, corresponding to 5 million vaccinated people, as a booster requires two doses per person. If AstraZeneca also reaches the goal immediately, another 16 million doses will be added for the first trimester, corresponding to another 8 million vaccinated people. Bottom line: as of April 1, we could have 13 million vaccinated, so we would have already reached Phase One, that is, the one that allows us to have the first epidemiological impact ”.
Speranza also says that he opposes the obligation, because this would trigger an ideological clash within the country: “We would not solve the problem, we would aggravate it. Better a serious information and awareness campaign: I am sure it will give better results …”. Even for doctors, according to the minister, there should be no obligation but conscience and example: illustrious vaccinated people like Galli and Pregliasco can be a stimulus to help others overcome doubts and perplexities. But there are also those who think differently about the obligation.
Meanwhile, there are those who are working on the ranking of those who will be called to be vaccinated. To date, before Speranza’s announcement about AstraZeneca, the government had plans to vaccinate 10 million Italians. The first will be the workers of hospitals and nursing homes, then it could touch the police and school personnel. But who will be called for prophylaxis later? The idea of the executive is to vaccinate based on the degree of frailty, using parameters such as advanced age, and to propose a method will be Giovanni Corrao, professor of Medical Statistics at the Bicocca University of Milan, who today spoke with Libero: a Decide the ranking it will be a statistical formula that will compare the medical records of all Italians. The Regions will provide therapeutic and diagnostic data: “The algorithm that determines the ranking is based on the identification of the clinical profile of all patients who in the last ten months have developed severe forms of Covid, which have forced them to be admitted to intensive care or even caused his death. We determined the weight that each frailty factor had, from age to previous pathologies, in determining the worsening of respiratory function or even death ”.
According to the professor, there are no privacy problems because those who analyze health data do not know the person’s identification code: “The algorithm that will assign each of us a score that will indicate the degree of precedence in access to prophylaxis is based on in a Mix of weights and correlations between lifestyle, general health situation, age, chronic diseases. There are around forty items, each of which will be associated with a value depending on the individual analyzed, which will allow us to draw a Comprehensive clinical picture that will show the subjective risk of death in case of contraction of Covid “. Age will play a role but not a determining factor since, as Corrao explains, a type 2 diabetic with respiratory difficulties may be more apt to be vaccinated before an elderly person in good health: “We will work for three days in the Lombardy Region, the pilot region Let’s start from here because there has never been statistical data on Covid before, but I have carte blanche from the ministry, only a signature of the president of the Region that makes the databases available and you can start anywhere “.
