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CLIMATE UNTIL JANUARY 2, 2021, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Following the Arctic eruption on Christmas and St. Stephen’s Days, a new, towering disturbance is entering the North Atlantic, linked to a powerful cold depression zone that is taking root in Western Europe but encompassing much of the continent. This depression is nothing more than the deepening of one of the lobes of the Polar Vortex.
The tightness of the cold air mattress in the Po Valley is a guarantee of rainfall that will be snowy from Sunday evening and then Monday. We will even have abundant snowfall locally in Piedmont, Lombardy, inland Liguria, western Emilia, initially also in some sectors of the Triveneto. Snow will not spare the Alpine valleys, which are also abundant here.
The bad weather will start at the beginning of the week in the rest of Italy as well, with rains that will extend to much of the center-north and Campania. The disturbed front will be driven by temporarily warmer and more humid air, bringing thermal softening to the Center-South where it will snow at higher altitudes, only in the mountains along the Apennines.
WINTER SCENARIO AND DISTURBANCE TRAVEL UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR
Bad weather will continue to penalize Italy during the last days of the year. Following the intense unrest on Monday, December 28, an extensive pocket of cold depression will still encompass half of Europe and extend beyond the Mediterranean. New fronts will be tested in series in our latitudes and will involve the central Mediterranean and Italy.
New secondary low pressure figures will also occur in the Mediterranean, which will renew bad weather due to the passage of unrest. After a brief temporary respite, new cold air contributions from northern Europe will take back much of Italy. The instability will affect the Center-South more directly with the snow in the Apennines.
A situation seems to continue during the first days of the new one, with the instability that will receive more lymph from other colder air continuously descending from northern Europe. Therefore, we will have the continuation of decidedly winter conditions, with cold but not frost. There will be snow on the slopes and locally at low altitudes.
WEATHER MONDAY 28, SNOW IN VAL PADANA AND MALTEMPO TOWARDS CENTRAL-SOUTH
Bad weather will affect the north, with widespread snowfall down to the plains. The sectors most affected by the snowfall, which will also be very abundant, will be Lombardy, Triveneto and Emilia. In Piedmont the snow will be weaker and it won’t be long before partial clearings occur in the second part of the day. The phenomena will decrease starting at night throughout the northwest.
Snow, sometimes down to the plains, will also fall on the Triveneto, but it will quickly turn to rain, as well as on the plains of southeast Lombard. Low altitude snowfall will also affect the interior of Liguria, but some flakes could reach the coast between Genoa and Savona, as an effect of the dark Tramontana.
Even heavy snowfall will affect a large part of the alpine sector and the lower valley areas of Trentino. The weather will also worsen in the Tyrrhenian regions, with thunderstorms first in Tuscany and Sardinia, then in Lazio and Campania. The rains will also reach the Marches and the Apennine mountain range, with snow of 1000/1300 meters. Trend for evening improvement in Tuscany.
UNSTABLE WINTER WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT THE END OF THE YEAR
Initial instability in the far northeast will persist Tuesday, with more snowfall at low altitudes. In the rest of the north we will have a dry but very harsh climate with locally persistent frozen fogs on the plains. Rainfall will be concentrated in the South-Central Tyrrhenian areas and western Sardinia, with scattered rains and snow on the hills above 1000-1200 meters.
Some rains will also affect Liguria and Tuscany, with snow splashing inland at more than 600/800 meters. A low pressure circulation will continue to be active during the middle of the week, especially in the Tyrrhenian and Sicilian regions with rains and showers, alternating with gusts of light, in a context always very windy. Snowfall can affect the Apennines at mid-altitude.
WINTER TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT EXCESSIVE COLD
The weather will temporarily soften in the Central-South in the first days of the week, due to the warmer western currents. Then new impulses of moderately cold air will bring back a winter context and will also characterize the period between New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Eve, with temperatures slightly below average.
MORE CLIMATE TRENDS
The unstable winter weather will continue during the first days of 2021, with more disturbances affecting the central-western Mediterranean basin and bringing rain and more snow on the reliefs, sometimes down to mid-low altitudes with possible invasions even in the plains of the north. In fact, the air mass will remain quite cold due to the arctic currents.
We remind you that weather forecasts valid for up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move further in time.
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