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The University of Tor Vergata estimates the impact on mortality in 2021. Intensive care in decline, but in case of delays 8 thousand more deaths in the middle of the year
by Marzio Bartoloni
The University of Tor Vergata estimates the impact on mortality in 2021. Intensive care decreases, but in case of delays 8 thousand more deaths by mid-year
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Beyond thirty thousand Italians. These are the lives that the vaccine will save next year if it is confirmed to be as effective as it promises and if the minimum threshold for herd immunity is exceeded with the vaccine. vaccination coverage greater than 80% in higher risk populations, especially among the weak and the elderly. Coverage that will gradually unfold its effects throughout 2021. If, however, paradoxically, no Italian were vaccinated, the dead would be more than 62 thousand.
To align the figures on the impact of vaccination, the best argument against the many skeptics of vaccines (one Italian in three according to an ISS survey) is a study being published by the Tor Vergata University of Rome coordinated by Francesco Saverio . Mennini Professor of Health Economics and Director of the Eehta Ceis Center. Which underlines how in case of delays and “if we do not reach an adequate objective for the second quarter of next year, we would run the risk of having more 8 thousand dead plus”.
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How the model was developed
“The model was developed by replicating the 2020 curves with a similar hospital bed occupancy over the next year,” adds Andrea Marcellusi, a researcher at Eehta-Ceis. The study also calculates the average vaccination rate in the 4 quarters of 2021, starting from the almost 300 hospitals indicated by Commissioner Arcuri for the first phase and arriving at the end of the year at 1500 management points Announced. The Tor Vergata study estimates an administration rate that ranges from 51 thousand vaccinated per day in the first months to 270 thousand in the last months. These figures would allow up to 90% of vaccinated Italians to be reached in 2021.
Not only. If these rates are really respected and the population responds en masse to the vaccination call, the Tor Vergata model estimates that the critical threshold of a thousand beds occupied in intensive care will never be exceeded. And even from now until next fall, the daily average of hospitalized patients will always be below 10 thousand beds, in the peaks we traveled. more than 30 thousand hospitalizations – with hospitals that can thus return, albeit slowly, to the pre-pandemic routine.
The figures are confirmed by Massimo Andreoni, director of the Department of Systems Medicine of Tor Vergata and coordinator of one of the vaccination centers of the Lazio Region: “The Tor Vergata polyclinic is working to start immediately with more than 300 doses of vaccines administered every day in the hospital facilities.In just under a week all health workers will be vaccinated and the population at risk, RSA and over 80 years old, will be able to start vaccinating.
