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As of January 7, we will return to the colored zone system, which has proven to work by lowering the RT from 1.7 to 0.82, without blocking the entire country. The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, anticipates today in an interview with Republic what will happen in January, when the decree-law regime of December 18 ends and the vaccination campaign that officially begins today will have its first effects.
The minister explains in the interview with the newspaper that the beginning is symbolic and that in order to have an appreciable effect on the Coronavirus epidemic it will take time: “A person is vaccinated, at 3 weeks the second injection must be done and at 7 or 10 days. The antibodies will be effective. To immunize 10 million people, 20 million injections will be needed. ”For this reason, in January (on the 15th the effects of the law and the Dpcm expire) there will not be“ all free. ”Also because meanwhile the English variant is scary “because of the transmission speed, plus 0.4 of Rt, due to the fact that it has its peak between 10 and 15 years, because it is already in France, Spain, Germany, Italy, but all our scientists tell us that vaccines should be effective for this mutation, which, however, shows us that the game is yet to be won. ” To declare the (partial) victory against the epidemic, “the goal is to reach 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Now we have 150. A few weeks ago we were at 450, but in the last 15 days the RT has started to rise, from 0.82 to 0.86-0.90. That is why we must keep our guard up: now that the vaccine is about to bring us out of the nightmare, we cannot afford any mistakes ”.
Speranza refers to the report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministry that in recent days certified that there are nine regions at risk: the national RT is at 0.90 in the period between December 14 and 20. Last week the RT stood at 0.86, confirming the resumption of growth (a fortnight ago it was at 0.82). In the majority of Regions and Autonomous Provinces there is a moderate or high level. In particular, Umbria, along with Liguria, Marche, Puglia and Veneto, are classified as high risk; 12 with moderate risk, of which four (Emilia-Romagna, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento and Valle d’Aosta) have a high probability of progressing with high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility remains unchanged. In total, therefore, there are nine regions at risk. For this reason, although technically today almost all of Italy is in the yellow zone (except Abruzzo, “orange” for a while), a return of the red and orange areas is expected in January. Until the epidemic is under control. And it could take another months.
when will it all end? Franco Locatelli, president of the Higher Health Council, predicts this today in an interview with Delivery courier: “We should be there by late summer or early fall. The weight of the effort must be emphasized: we took 42 million Italians as the target to be immunized, the famous 70% for herd immunity. Let’s divide them by 10 months, that’s 4.2 million per month. That’s 140 thousand vaccinations a day. A big number “.
