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Andrea Morigi
It will be the pandemic that crowns China as the world’s leading economic power and relegates the United States to second. The overtaking has not yet occurred, but is scheduled for 2028, five years before previous estimates, by the Center for Economic and Business Research (Cebr). The decisive factor is the recovery from the effects of Covid-19, faster behind the Great Wall, where the economy will grow by 2% in 2020 (it is the main economy to grow). The US economy, on the other hand, will contract by 5%, allowing China to narrow the gap with its biggest rival.
THE SHOT
In general, the Cebr specifies, this year the gross domestic product, worldwide, is expected to decrease by 4.4%, registering the largest annual contraction since World War II. Leading the ranking with an average economic growth of 5.7% per year in 2021-2025 before slowing down to 4.5% per year in 2026-2030, will be precisely the Dragon. For the United States, the recovery process will be slower and the growth rate will be at 1.9% per year between 2022 and 2024, to decrease in intensity in the following years, falling to 1.6. percent. “The big news in these forecasts – explains Douglas McWilliams, vice president of Cebr – is the growth speed of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become a high-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it to outperform the United States five years earlier than a year ago. “
THE NEW BALANCES
China’s share of world GDP increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019 and will continue to grow, according to Cebr. Beijing is expected to cross the per capita threshold of $ 12,536 to become a high-income country in 2023: however, the standard of living for Chinese will remain much lower than in the US and Western Europe. In the United States, the average per capita income is just over $ 63,000, while in the United Kingdom it is over $ 39,000. In the future reorganization of global balances, according to the Cebr report, Japan would remain the third largest economy in the world, at least until the early 1930s, when it was overtaken by India. At that point, Germany will move from fourth to fifth in the top ten, while the post-Brexit UK will move from fifth to sixth. As for Europe, which in 2020 still represents 19% of world production, it seems destined to fall inexorably, reaching 12% in 2035. In particular, the economy destined to suffer the most this year will be the Italian (-11%) , to the point of losing seven places in the classification, where he is currently seventh and in 2035 he will appear in fourteenth place. The causes identified by the Cebr, in addition to the deindustrialization of the last decade of the last century, can be summarized in an unstable political climate, the lack of structural reforms, the demographic decline and the weight of public debt.
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