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Friday December 25 The 5pm update of the Azienda Zero newsletter for Veneto sees a slight increase in hospital admissions and currently positive cases. In the region, the number of positives actually increased to 87,670 (+837)) compared to 86,883 yesterday, while 350 are hospitalized in intensive care in the Veneto region. The dead, however, sadly fall at 5972 (+50 compared to yesterday).
As for the province of Treviso, currently positive cases in Treviso and the province are 15,236 (yesterday they were 14,587) while deaths continue to increase and are 869 (+7 compared to yesterday). In the last 24 hours, 818 new positives were registered: 573 in the morning bulletin and 245 in this afternoon. There are also 45 intensive care patients at the Marca: 25 hospitalized in Treviso, 9 in Vittorio Veneto, 3 in Montebelluna, 5 in Conegliano and 2 in Oderzo. In the non-critical area there is instead 104 people hospitalized in Ca ‘Foncello, 94 in Montebelluna, 113 in Vittorio Veneto, 48 in San Camillo, 28 in Oderzo, 18 in Conegliano and 20 in Motta di Livenza. Data to which must be added the admissions in community hospitals where there are 25 patients in Treviso and 21 in Vittorio Veneto. Finally, there are 30,324 curados in the Brand.
Veneto’s Rt index
The Rt contagion index is below 1 in the whole of Italy, except in two regions, the Veneto and Molise. The coronavirus epidemic is in a declining but slowing phase. We have reached more than two million positive cases and the RT continues to increase for the second week in a row, after five in a row of decline. As Today reports, the numbers of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and ministry report published yesterday tell us that the risks of what will happen after January 6 are still on the table and there is no need to lower our guard.
Veneto “at high risk”
The president of the ISS (Higher Institute of Health) Silvio Brusaferro yesterday in a video presenting the results of the monitoring explained that the national RT is at 0.90 in the period between December 14 and 20. Last week the RT stood at 0.86 confirming the resumption of growth (fifteen days ago it was at 0.82). In most Regions and Autonomous Provinces there is a Moderate or High level. In particular, five regions are classified as high risk, including Veneto, with Rt at 1.11.
“After a few weeks in which there has been a downward trend in RT and in the number of new cases – said the general director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health Gianni Rezza – we now have a kind of stabilization trend. So much so that the incidence that last week was estimated at about 375 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants this week is 330 per 100,000, so the decrease is really slight. We also see this in the daily data, we see that every day both the number of positives of Sars-CoV-2 and the percentage of positives in the tests carried out remain more or less stable and for a couple of weeks we have been tending to slightly increase the RT again: it was at 0.82 two weeks ago, it rose to 0.86 last week and now it is at 0.9.
Italy in the yellow zone in January?
In this perspective, one wonders what effect the red and orange zone proclaimed in recent days by the Conte government will have: the physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder of the Facebook page “Coronavirus – Scientific data and analysis”, explained to the agency Ansa news that the Epiphany could lead to a reduction in new infections. “Today’s data, with 18,000 new positives, shows a stable situation: it was predictable, considering that the Rt index, which has been rising slightly for ten days, remains just below” 1 “, he said.The November Dpcm caused a drastic reduction in new cases, but then something stopped this decrease: we do not know if it was the pre-Christmas purchase or the passage of the Regions in the yellow zone. The fact is that we have not been able to bring infections below the alarm threshold: the positivity rate remains high, at 9.3%, and although the pressure on hospitals falls, the entry of new patients who need care continues : in intensive care, 149 were registered in the last 24 hours “.
From the Epiphany, the effects of the Christmas closings will begin to be seen for the establishment of the red zone: according to Sestili, this measure taken throughout the national territory could help to homogenize the situation between the different regions. “We can expect a new decrease in cases, even if – concludes the expert – we do not know how long it will last after the reopening of schools and work activities.” The danger is all here: the end of the restrictions could lead to the third wave.