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The new English variant of Covid-19 could be more contagious in the children Compared to what has happened so far: more or less all those under 15 have been, for the most part, rid of the virus both in terms of severity of illness and contagion. In adolescents, the cases between the first and second waves were minimal.
What happens to the children
This time, however, it may not apply to variant discovered in England in October and launched just a few days ago. There was a “general change in the distribution of the virus towards children, for both variants and non-variants“says Neil Ferguson, director of the Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis of the Medical Research Council of Imperial College London in a preliminary study published in the British weekly BMJ.
For more information, we interviewed Professor Marco Falcone, researcher for Infectious Diseases at the University of Pisa, dependent on the Aoup Operational Unit and a member of the board of directors of Simit (Italian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases).
Professor Falcone, is it true that the English variant is more contagious in children?
“It seems so. The British Ministry of Health has created a working group against Covid, the equivalent of our CTS (Technical Scientific Committee, ed), with a number of members who are managing the emergency. These experts have analyzed the They were noted data from October to December evaluating the impact of the new variant, dominant in the south of England, and an important increase cases in children under 15 years. In general, the infectivity of the new variant is higher than 70% and in November 80% of British infections were already constituted by this new mutation of the virus ”.
What is the supporting evidence?
“The predominance of the new variant can be seen in the English infection records as early as October but, especially in November, there has been an increase in the infection rate in children, most of whom have the infection caused by the new variant. At the moment it is one plus one but it probably has a higher infectious capacity even in that age group. The epidemiological data, I remember, is still a bit crude. “
What are the risks children face?
“Although there has been an increase in the number of cases, no increase in the number of severe cases has been reported at this time: children generally have a higher rate low develop a severe form of the disease compared to adults because the receptor on which the virus depends, the famous Ace2, is less expressed ”.
What age group is most at risk?
In England they released the data of those under 15 years of age: we still do not know if they are more affected fascia between zero and six years old, 6-12 years old or between those in elementary school instead of high school. We still do not have this type of data and no signs of hospital admissions: this virus seems more infectious but no longer virulent and aggressive.
What has changed in the Ace2 receptor, the gateway to the virus, that makes the very young more vulnerable?
“We don’t know yet: the hypothesis that the children were infected little was due to fewer Ace2 receptors: lower production of this receptor makes the virus less effective at infecting lung cells and all the others.” Now, instead, the protein mutation occurred Spike against which vaccines are also active, which is the one that adheres to the Ace receptor through which the virus enters the stem cell. This mutation appears to make the virus more effective and the viral load appears to be higher. It is something to look at with enormous and extreme attention ”.
In a first phase, the children were, at most, asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic carriers. What are the scenarios that await us now with the new variant?
According to the preliminary data provided to us by the British authorities, it does not appear that children develop a severe form of the disease, they may remain asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic but, as they become much more contagious, they will more easily carry the infection home and adults. The other big problem, if it spread to Italy too, could create a very rapid spread of contagion that would put Ko even in the vaccine: if it will take months to vaccinate but a new variant of Covid, meanwhile, infects a large part of the population, the vaccine runs the risk of arriving late.
What problems could there be with the reopening of schools in January?
“If primary and secondary schools remain open and there is a viral variant that spreads widely in children, assuming they don’t develop severe forms, it would certainly lead to an increase in the infection rate in adults causing it to flare up again. It will have to be crucial, at this point, make one put on screen in schools: to date we do not know what happens to children, I am not aware that there is a systematic screening. If this variant spreads, the approach in schools will have to be completely changed, otherwise there is a risk of spreading the virus even in families. “
At what point is Italy with the sequencing of the virus?
“We are very much in to delay: in the last two months, in England between 10 and 15% of viral strains have been sequenced, in Italy less than 1% have been sequenced. This new problem may already be present in many areas such as Veneto but it is not known because our system is not as efficient in virus sequencing. It is a limitation of the system of our virology laboratories, it would be necessary to have a map of each Region, in England they discovered it because they have the tools to search for it ”.
What steps should be taken?
“By sequencing the virus, we would find Regions and areas in which this variant circulates. Virology laboratories in Italy, which are of the highest level, must give us Quickly answers like the British do. Our virologists, in addition to having great communication on television, should also spend more time in the laboratory to sequence viruses. If there are areas in which the circulation of this variant is significant, more containment measures should be adopted, but especially in the contexts of greater risk, which today are primary and secondary schools. We cannot pretend that this activity is not at risk, we need screening tests ”.
What do you need now?
“Knowing in which Regions the variant circulates, it might be useful to make a emergency shutdown stricter in one area than another, the parameters for handling constraints would change again. As you can see, the disease presents constant news and we will not get rid of it easily ”.
