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The red zone has taken place all over Italy. The Christmas holidays, regardless of the Rt index and other parameters on the Coronavirus infection, will be experienced in the same way in all the Regions: at home and with the travel ban, with some exceptions. “The red zone that begins today could cool the temperature of the infection. And maybe make up for the shopping week that just ended. But in some regions the situation is not yet under control: there is a risk that it will restart “, says a Republic Roberto Battiston.
According to the physicist, professor at the University of Trento, former president of the Italian space agency and a student of data related to the Coronavirus pandemic, the restrictions during the holidays will bring an improvement in the epidemiological situation, but this will be sensitive only in the regions “. controlled the epidemic.” In the others, however, “the situation remains critical and they risk a third wave in January.”
The numbers that worry Puglia and Sardinia
Battiston cites the example of Puglia that “on September 29 it had 2,400 active infected and only in these days it is reaching the peak of the second wave with more than 50 thousand infected and Rt around 1. Projections say that on January 7 the active infected will be 48 thousand, 20 times higher than in September. And we observe a similar trend in Sardinia. On the other hand, Tuscany, which was the red zone, had 3,400 active infected at the end of September with Rt of 1.1 and at the beginning January should reach 2,000 infected with an Rt of approximately 0.5. The end of the holiday blockade will have different impacts on such different realities “.
For the physicist, the other areas of greatest risk are Trentino and Veneto, where “the curve of the pandemic continues to grow.” As for the national situation, Battiston believes that the restrictions imposed by the government from December 24 to January 6 will serve to compensate for the relaxation of the previous days, when mobility was high and shopping meetings were taking place throughout Italy. “Of course, we know that to put the situation back on the table a month of lockdown is needed. Ten days will have a limited but useful impact.
“The school? It is wrong to make a single speech for all of Italy”
On the reopening of schools, Battiston believes that “it is wrong to make a single speech for all of Italy. In Regions that have reduced the number of active infected and that have a low Rt, it will be possible to teach in person, provided that security measures are adopted. In the rest, the reopening of the schools would run the risk of unleashing the third wave. Battiston concludes with a note on the new Covid variant. In the event that its high infectivity among children were demonstrated, he says, “reopening in presence would be even more problematic. And we should consider whether to include the very young among the categories to be vaccinated immediately ”.
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