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Bologna, December 23, 2020 – New cases decrease, albeit slightly (106,794 against 113,182 in the previous week), a figure in line with the reduction in the ratio of positives / cases analyzed (which fell to 22.9% against 24.5% in the previous week). Independent monitoring of Gimbe Foundation in the week of December 16 to 22. National data before going into details of those relating to Emilia Romagna and Marche. And if, again on a national scale, currently positive cases are reduced by 9.2% (605,955 vs 667,303), in the hospital setting hospitalizations with symptoms (-8.8%) and intensive care (-10, 5%) ; deaths also decreased (-13.7%).
“This week’s data – declares Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – confirm that the slowdown in contagion is less and less evident, as documented by the stabilization of the proportions of positive / tested and positive / total swabs, by the modest reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (5.7% versus 6.4%) and by the slight decrease in new cases weekly (-5.6%) “.
“The percentage of increase in cases per 100,000 inhabitants – adds Renata Gili, Head of Research for Gimbe Health Services – which last week was in decline throughout the country, this week reversed the trend in 6 regions and among them are the Marks. “The highest increase is in Sardinia (+ 8%) and Marche (7.4%), the lowest in the Val d’Aostra (+ 2.4%).
Contagion in Emilia Romagna
The percentage drop in new cases in Emilia Romagna continues: this week it stands at + 7.3% compared to + 10.3% two weeks ago. A positive figure, therefore, although it is always higher than the national figure, which stands at 5.7% in the week of December 16 to 22. On the other hand, the ratio between positive and tested cases worsens, reaching 33.7%. The national average in this case stops at 22.9%.
Contagion in the Marks
In the Marche region, the percentage increase in new positives worsens (+ 7.4%) but the relationship between new positives and analyzed cases improves (+ 12.4%).
The Covid Marche approach: data and infections
Hospitalization and intensive care in Emilia Romagna
The number of beds in the medical area occupied by Covid patients in Emilia Romagna is increasing, reaching 52% (the saturation threshold in the medical area is calculated at 40%) compared to 38% of the national average. While the number of beds in intensive care occupied by Covid patients is decreasing (28%) compared to an Italian average of 31%. Here the saturation threshold is calculated at 30%.
Hospitalizations and intensive therapies in the Marches
The number of beds in the medical area occupied by Covid patients in the Marks decreased to 36% (the saturation threshold in the medical area is calculated at 40%) compared to 38% of the national average. And the number of intensive care beds occupied by Covid patients is also decreasing (29%) compared to an Italian average of 31%. Here the saturation threshold is calculated at 30%
“Dpcm restrictions are lacking effect”
I know regional situations are quite heterogeneous, it is evident that in general the containment measures introduced with the Dpcm of November 3, 2020 are lacking effect. “The percentage increase in cases actually – says Renata Gili, Head of Research in Health Services at the Gimbe Foundation – which last week was in decline throughout the country, this week has reversed the trend in 6 regions.” As for hospitalizations, the slow descent of the curves continues, but the employment of Covid patients still exceeds the threshold of 40% in medical services in 9 Regions and 30% in intensive care units in 8 Regions. The death curve increases less steeply, but the number is still very high, approaching 4,000.
Vaccine and English variant: effects on the pandemic
“Beyond improving restrictive measures for the Christmas period – continues the president of the Foundation – two factors will influence the evolution of the pandemic in our country in the coming months: the start of the vaccination campaign and the spread of recently isolated British variant“. Vaccination campaign. “At the moment – Cartabellotta explains – it is only possible to make general forecasts regarding the achievement of vaccination coverage for 60-70% of the population”. Analyzing the approval status of the vaccine: certain doses are just over 10 million as of March 2021 and 22.8 million as of June 2021: those of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, approved by the EMA on December 21, and the of Moderna that should have the go-ahead on January 6.
The English tip virus, the first contagion in the Marches
Vaccines AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson They are in the ongoing review phase, meaning Ema assesses the data as it becomes available, but neither company has yet submitted the full data for conditional approval. CureVac announced on December 14 the enrollment of the first patient in the phase 3 study. Sanofi-Gsk has already announced the postponement of dosing until 2022.
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