4 thousand deaths in a week. “Few vaccines, a new plan against the pandemic is needed” – Corriere.it

The pool of currently positive patients (-9%) and the pressure on hospitals decreased with the decrease in patients with symptoms (-8%) and in intensive care (-10.5%). Independent monitoring of Gimbe Foundation In the week of December 16-22, he also photographs a Slow down of the most painful curve, that of deaths: 3,985 (-13.7% compared to the previous seven days). However, the study notes that “the effects of restrictive measures are fading.” “The data confirm that the slowdown in contagion is less and less evident – says Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – But beyond the strengthening of the restrictive measures for the Christmas period there are there are two factors that will influence the coming months the evolution of the pandemic in our country ”. The vaccination campaign (with i “Few vaccines” currently available) and “the dissemination of English variant recently isolated ”whose“ impact is still uncertain ”. In summary, according to Cartabellottaì “it is essential to reevaluate the pandemic management plan.

The hospitals

The study then notes a slight decrease in new infections (106,794 versus 113,182), compared to a stability of tested cases (465,534 vs. 462,645) and in line with the reduction in rpositive contribution / proven cases (22.9% vs 24.5%). If the regional situations are quite heterogeneous, it is clear, however, that the containment measures introduced with the Dpcm of November 3 are running out of effects. “The percentage increase in de facto cases – explains Gimbe’s Renata Gili – which last week was in decline throughout the country, this week reversed the trend in six regions.” Regarding hospitalizations, the decline in the curves continues, but the employment of Covid patients still exceeds the 40% threshold in the medical departments of nine Regions and the 30% threshold in the intensive care units of eight Regions. The death curve rises less steeply, but the number is still very high, approaching 4,000.

Vaccination campaign

How will the vaccination campaign affect the progress of the pandemic in Italy? “At the moment – Cartabellotta explains – it is only possible to make general forecasts regarding the achievement of vaccination coverage for 60-70% of the population”. The strategic plan of the Ministry of Health also informs 202 million dosespotentially available (equivalent to 101 million complete vaccination cycles) but will have to wait for the completion of the clinical studies and the conditional approval of the EMA. To date, says Gimbe, certain doses are just a little over 10 millionwithin march me 22.8 million in June: those of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, approved by the EMA on December 21, and those of Moderna that should receive the green light on January 6. The AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are in the continuous review phase (cyclical review): the manufacturers have not yet submitted the documentation to the EMA, which for now is evaluating the results that are gradually being made available. CureVac, for its part, announced on December 14 the enrollment of the first patient in the phase 3 study. Sanofi-GSK has already announced the postponement of the delivery of doses until 2022.

The English variant

Already isolated in early October, it was not officially revealed until December 14. On December 18, the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag, the committee of experts supporting the UK government) released a document stating that “there is moderate evidence of a higher transmissibility compared to other variants. “However, as also reiterated by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (Ecdc) and the government report Investigation of the new variant of SARS-COV-2 based on the evidence available today it is not possible to draw conclusions sui definitive mechanisms that determine the probable higher transmissibility and in Consequences on the severity of the disease (without data on worse clinical evolution, higher mortality or greater vulnerability of certain population groups). There is not even certainty aboutvaccine efficacy: in this Pfizer-BionTech and Moderna have announced an evaluation which will take approx. two weeks and, should the current vaccine fail in the UK variant, they plan to synthesize a new vaccine in six weeks.