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“Need a sudden closure“. Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Minister of Health for the Coronavirus emergency, has been saying this since October. If we had carried out selective closures, as in Australia and New Zealand, now the situation of our epidemiological curve would be very different. Now there they will celebrate Christmas with hugs and kisses ”.
Ricciardi calls for even more restrictive measures for Italians, effective immediately, especially to counter the viral power of so-called English variant of Covid, more contagious and therefore considered more dangerous. In these conditions “it will be difficult to reopen schools on January 7“He warns.
New strain of Covid: what we know
It is not a more aggressive or deadly form, but it is much more contagious.– Runs even 70-80% faster. It is no coincidence that in the United Kingdom there has been a sharp increase in cases and today there are almost 36 thousand infections, a record. Ricciardi explains that the higher probability of infection is due to the ability of this variant of the virus to enter our body through the mucosa.
The exponential increase in the number of coronavirus cases in Italy in the second wave, now slightly backwards, albeit with high-risk scenarios always present in at least three Regions, and a series of deaths that makes Italy jump first in Europe and third in the world, could be linked to the new English stock.
We don’t know yet, but it is very likely that from London and southern England this variant has already spread to Europe and not just Europe. According to Ricciardi it could have entered our country “already in November.”
The British have done something “very important”: they have funded a consortium of the best viral genomic sequencing centers and have sequenced hundreds of cases. Then they realized that this variant was a little more contagious than the other, but the problem is that they raised the alarm and he warned the rest of the world “a little too late.” Ricciardi is said to be angry about this. “The British knew since September that it was in circulation,” but kept silent.
New English variant and vaccine
The good news is that, at the moment, it appears that the The vaccine also blocks this variant. and it is equally effective. Mutations in viruses always happen, all the time, Ricciardi explains, but in fact they rarely completely disrupt the “lock” on which the vaccine “key” acts.
“Right now, based on the data that our English colleagues have provided us, this ‘padlock’ is not altered. So this vaccine key can still open and protect us. Of course we must continue to monitor, but the warning and encouragement is to accelerate vaccination, protect more people and as quickly as possible.
When asked, Minister Speranza’s advisor responds that he will be vaccinated in January if all goes well: “I don’t see patients, so it is more appropriate for those in the front row to get vaccinated first to protect themselves and patients. I can wait a bit ”.
Continuous and longer locks
And the new measures taken by the Government for Christmas Italians? They are “adequate in principle”, but are not enough, “Because the important thing is to limit mobility”, but now, with the British variant, “the problem is timing: if you think about mitigating this epidemic curve with days it is an illusion, if instead you think you are prepared to resist” weeks you have chances of winning ”.
More continuous and prolonged mobility control measures are needed. The more restrictive measures would have been more effective, as would Germany and Austria: the latter will remain locked up until January 16 and then will allow you to leave the house only after a swab.
The problem in Italy is that the traffic light system ensures that decisions are based on objective epidemiological data and then related to specific territories. What doesn’t work is there “Haste” with which you go from one color to another. “And often yellow is interpreted as green.”
The vast majority of Italians respect the rules and are in favor of limiting their movements, to be careful. However, there is a minority, around 10-20% of the population, that does not accept changes in their behavior: a non-marginal minority that allows the virus to circulate. That is why the control system is very important.
Limitations to mobility and infection monitoring
What to do then? In the first phase we carried out a rigorous confinement for two months and only after that closure did we see that the chain of contagion was interrupted ”, he continues. What the central and local health systems have failed to do: track infections, to rebuild the chain of contagion, after further limiting movements.
“If we think by analogy, it took us 2 months to reduce fewer cases than we do today. We need at least a similar period. It will be a long battle ”.
We cannot imagine eradicating the virus quickly, we have to live with it, but at low circulation levels, 100-200 cases per day, limiting movement and making contact tracing work well. “If we lose control, we will always chase it.” In the coming weeks we will have a slight increase in cases “because of everything we saw on the streets”, on days of unbridled shopping.
We find ourselves, almost suddenly and without protection, in a phase where infections have exploded. As in other countries, the curve has risen a lot. “When you have tens of thousands of cases a day, you have to wait a long time for them to come back to a level where you can track them.”
Now, it will take a long time to narrow the curve of the epidemic. This is why it is absolutely essential to coordinate so as not to lose control of the situation, as in fact happened in February-March when we thought that the Covid “never passed through flights but through other roads.”
Ricciardi’s prediction
Ricciardi, as always, does not beat around the bush, and so far his predictions have always been correct, as when he said that “December and January will have been terrible.”
“If we limit mobility, stay home and resume tracking, this curve will contain it.” If we don’t, the scenario that awaits us is blacker than ever: “If it continues at this rate, we will have 40,000 dead in February.”
In short, it is up to us. As the vaccine doses arrive, the situation will improve. Health personnel will be vaccinated first, then RSA patients, patients over eighty, the elderly under 80, and then the entire population. Ricciardi predicts that the pandemic will end “by the end of the year”.
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