“40 thousand dead in February if we do not limit mobility”

Published on: 12/22/2020 10:50 AM

“If we limit mobility, stay home and resume tracking, this curve will contain it,” but “if it continues at this rate, we will have 40,000 deaths in FebruaryThus in ‘Buongiorno’ in SkyTg24 Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Minister of Health for the coronavirus emergency, spoke of the number of victims caused by the second wave of Covid-19, which could increase a lot if we do not respect the Christmas restrictions. “It’s up to us,” he warned.

For Ricciardi “the new measures are adequate in principle, because the important thing is to limit mobility. With the English variant we are exposed not only to the virus as we know it, but to an even more contagious virus,” he stressed. “The problem is timing: if you think about mitigating this epidemic curve with days it is an illusion, but if you think about equipping yourself to endure weeks you have a chance of winning,” he said.

Could the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in Italy in this second epidemic wave be related to the English variant of Sars-CoV-2? “It is possible, but we do not know yet because we have to find out if it was indeed like that.” However “it is very likely that from London, from the south of England, this variant has already spread to Europe and probably not just in Europe. I think already in November“It may have come to Italy,” Ricciardi said.

It is difficult to say – he observed – but from London ‘the mutant’ has spread to Kent, in the south of England, in Scotland. Probably from London, which is one of the largest international airports, it has spread throughout the world. world”.

“The British did something very important – Ricciardi stressed – They financed a consortium of the best viral genomic sequencing centers and sequenced hundreds of cases. Then they realized that this variant was a bit more contagious than the other. And they gave the warning to the world a little too late because if we had had the opportunity to know sooner we probably would have been more alert. “

The adviser to the Minister of Health said that Covid vaccine “key” still works, even if English variant of Sars-CoV-2 circulates.

“Mutations in viruses occur constantly – he explained – but in fact they rarely completely alter” the “lock” on which the ‘key’ of the vaccine acts. “At this moment, from the data that our English colleagues have given us, this ‘lock’ is not altered. So this vaccination key is still capable of opening and protecting us – specified Ricciardi – Of course we must continue to monitor But the warning and the encouragement is to speed up vaccination, protect more people and as quickly as possible. “

Ricciardi predicts that We will “get out” of the Covid-19 crisis “End of the year. Little by little the doses of the vaccine will arrive. Health personnel will be vaccinated first, then RSA patients, those over eighty, the elderly under 80, then the entire population. “

In his analysis, the consultant to the Minister of Health later observed that tracing in Italy “did not work, we did not adequately prepare ourselves in the communities to trace. We did not strengthen the diagnostic and tracing machine that allowed countries like Australia and New Zealand to celebrate Christmas normally. “

Therefore, we are in a phase in which lowering the epidemic curve “will still take a long time – warned the expert -” In fact, what has happened here, as in other countries, is that the curve has risen a lot. When you have tens of thousands of cases a day, you have to wait a long time for them to come back to a level where you can track them. “

“It is a long battle – added Ricciardi- and it is not surprising that it ends soon, but the important thing is that it will end, if we behave responsibly by limiting our mobility and adopting wise behaviors. It is unthinkable that it will happen in a week or 10 days: It will take a long time, I don’t know if one or 2 months, but the time will drag on ”.