[ad_1]
In Italy they are +10,872 new positive cases according to the data disclosed in the daily monitoring carried out by Civil Protection and the Ministry of Health. Yesterday, however, the increase was +15,104 Unit. The data comes in front of 87,889 new pads, for a total of 25,217,014. I’m too 415 deaths, compared to yesterday, when they were 352. The positives are currently 613,582. Discharged and healed today are 1,281,258while hospitalized with symptoms 25,145. I am 2,731 patients admitted to intensive care. “Intensive care is decreasing slightly, but it is still too early to claim victory,” explains CNR mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani.
Professor, what scenario are we in today, from the point of view of infections?
“For the situation, so far, we are again at a standstill compared to the previous days, when instead we registered a very slight decrease. The percentage of new positives in tested cases goes back to the top 25%».
What about intensive care?
“There is an indication of a downtrend here, if we look at the theoretical curve over the three week period. Today we are a 161 new entries, but it takes a few more days to understand how the curve will develop. Yesterday we were at the usual low on Sunday. Undoubtedly, the fluctuation is confirmed, with a slight descent of the curve ».
And the deaths?
«The predictions I had made seem correct to me: the first, which referred to the peak of victims already reached during the first week of December. The second is that by Christmas we would have fallen below 500 deaths a day on average. And today’s data confirm it.
Can you tell us more about the Covid variant?
«It must be studied thoroughly. There is a possibility that the December stasis depends on the circulation of the new variant of Covid. Looking at the incidence curves, the UK changed course around December 1. The same goes for France and Germany. Spain and Italy, on the other hand, arrive 7-10 days later, probably due to their greater distance from the UK. But that’s the phenomenon. As far as I know, the UK wave has probably already invaded Europe: the phenomenon can be traced to the time of the reversal of the five European countries examined.
Germany
Spain
UK
France
Italy
So, for Italy, and for the other four states, the beginning of Christmas shopping has nothing to do with it, as was supposed?
“This is the wave of the variant, but I think the period of high mobility of Christmas shopping has contributed. We do not have elements at the moment to exclude one of the two factors.
What are the predictions? How might the effect of the variant affect intensive care, for example?
“Given the growth, we need to see if with these measures we can compensate for the circulation of this mutation, which, according to experts, is higher at this time. If the contagion spreads and there are similar effects on the body, after the usual times it will do harm, even for intensive care, this is clear. For now, however, little is known. All the more reason to control and reduce the chances of contagion. We will not stand there watching.
Read also:
[ad_2]
