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Florence, December 18, 2020 – Here is the hypothesis of Tuscany’s anti-Covid vaccination plan. A campaign that will put the regional health organizational system to the test. Reach group immunity, the minimum objective of most of the models studied on Covid, foresees the need to vaccinate between 60 and 70% of the total population.
Covid vaccine, departure to reserves for health personnel
It is essential that the distribution is homogeneous to avoid that some areas are exposed. Therefore, to reach the minimum coverage target in the entire population, Tuscany will have to manage around 45 thousand vaccinations a day (10 thousand only in the province of Florence) for six months, from the moment it begins.
Covid vaccine: who can do it, how is it administered
Mass vaccination will probably not start before mid-February: by that date we will have to manage the completion of phase one, with the vaccination of health workers and RSA guests.
If the two phases, the first of vaccination for health professionals and RSA, and the second, aimed at the entire population, overlap, the organizational effort required it would be even bigger. But let’s go in order.
Mass vaccination is an operation public health It has never happened before in history, in these times it is these modalities. This is a great challenge. A double entry of fundamental importance: the virus must be controlled in the shortest possible time.
For the second phase, which will involve the entire population, the accounts are soon done. In the area of the center ASL Toscana the inhabitants are 1 million 670 thousand. To reach the minimum vaccination target of 60%, one million would have to be vaccinated.
Excluding children under 16, for whom the vaccine has not yet been sufficiently tested, we are at 1 million and 386 thousand people. The elimination of pregnant and lactating women drops to one million 350 thousand.
A number to double to perform the two administrations. On average, the days available in a month, excluding holidays and pre-holidays, are 22. In the semester 132. Therefore, vaccinating just over 60% of the population of the ASL Central Tuscany takes six months.
Taking into account that you need at least 10 minute time at least 205,540 hours, or 3,425 hours per day, will be used for each vaccination (including preparation, with dose portions). If we consider that each vaccinator works five hours uninterrupted, at least 685 workers are needed. They will come?
Extending the calculation to the rest of our region we see that in the territories from the ASL of Northwest Tuscany residents are 1,269,501 and 831,480 in the southeast. Given the proper proportions, it will take six months to vaccinate more than 60% of Tuscans with at least 1,600 vaccinators involved.
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