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New cases and current positives for coronavirus are slowly declining, but the ratio of positive cases / proven cases remains stable and the reduction in testing activity suggests that restrictive measures may have reached their peak of effect. What does that mean? That adopting more restrictions during the holiday season could be the only way to avoid a third wave of infections.
Coronavirus, the follow-up of the Gimbe Foundation
This is one of the conclusions reached by the Gimbe Foundation through the follow-up data between December 9 and 15: compared to the previous report, there was a decrease in new cases (113,182 vs 136,493), compared to to a reduction of more than 88 thousand cases analyzed (462,645 vs 551,068) and a stable proportion of positives / cases analyzed (24.5% vs 24.8%). Currently, positive cases decreased 9.5% (667,303 vs 737,525) and, in the hospital setting, hospitalizations with symptoms decreased (27,342 vs 30,081) and in intensive care (3,003 vs 3,345); deaths also decreased slightly (4,617 versus 4,879). In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
- Deaths: 4,617 (-5.4%)
- Intensive care: -342 (-10.2%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: -2,739 (-9.1%)
- New cases: 113,182 (-17.1%)
- Currently positive cases: -70,222 (-9.5%)
- Cases tested -88,423 (-16.1%)
- Total mattresses: -162,837 (-12.9%)
Child Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation, underlines how it is inevitable, in the current state of affairs, to adopt new restrictive measures: “ This week’s data confirm the slowdown in infection, documented by the reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (6.4% vs 8.4% at the national level, also registered in all Regions) and by the number of new weekly cases (- 17.1%). However, the net reduction of more than 88,000 cases analyzed (-16.1%) and the stable positive / cases analyzed ratio end up overestimating the effects of mitigation measures. ”
According to the monitoring, this week there was an unjustified reduction in testing activity in all regions except Veneto and Valle d’Aosta. As for the pool of positives currently, in some regions it empties very slowly, while in six there was even an increase compared to the previous week.
The basin of positives is currently emptying very slowly and there is even an increase in 6 Regions.
In particular, after the peak of November 22 (n. 805,947), the currently positive cases decreased in 24 days by 20.8%, with an average daily reduction of 0.9%: however, with more than 667 thousand currently positive cases, finds it impossible to resume any tracking activity.
Surely the restrictive measures introduced by the Dpcm on November 3, 2020 have slowed the spread of the infection – continues Nico Cartabellotta – but the slow and irregular descent of the curve, combined with a positive / proven ratio stable for three weeks, suggest that mitigation measures have now yielded the maximum result and now, with progressive reopens, the curve will probably first slow down its decline and then inexorably rise again ”
He hospitals? Even the admissions data do not leave room for celebration, as explained Renata Gili, Head of Health Services Research at the Gimbe Foundation: “Even on the hospital front, the scale of the slowdown leaves no room for great enthusiasm.” The peak of the second wave of hospitalized patients with symptoms was reached on November 23 (34,697) and in 22 days it was reduced by 26.9%, that of intensive care on November 25 (3,848) and in 20 days it was reduced by 28.1%. Furthermore, it is not possible to define to what extent the reduction in pressure on hospitalization and intensive care is an effect of containment measures and how much it depends, instead, on the high mortality rate of hospitalized patients ”. In any case, the employment threshold for COVID patients exceeds 40% in medical departments in 10 Regions and more than 30% in intensive care units in 14 Regions ”
Finally – concludes Renata Gili – the number of deaths continues to inexorably increase: 4,617 dead in the last week, more than 20,000 in the last month and more than 31,000 in the second wave of September 1 (figure 4). These numbers, which catapult Italy to first place in Europe for total deaths from Covid-19 (65,857) and for the fatality rate (3.5%), clash a lot with the words of Prime Minister Conte according to which ” With calibrated and well circumscribed measurements we are holding up this second wave well. ”
The president of the Gimbe Foundation then speaks again about the Christmas period: “ In the run-up to the Christmas holidays in the face of anything other than reassuring data, (in) political decisions continue to be conditioned by institutional conflicts, partisan commitments and emotional reactions, rather than being informed by a strategic plan to protect health, specifically support the economy and manage the social consequences of the pandemic. In other words, if the continued call for civic responsibility of the people called not to lower their guard in any way is necessary, the Government and the Regions must admit that, after the exhausting hesitations in October to introduce the restrictions, they loosened them with too much precipitation. , without expecting a significant decrease in infections, or a constant emptying of hospitals. ”
In this scenario – Cartabellotta concludes – the Christmas lockout is the only possibility to avoid the new year with hospitals and health services still saturated that run the risk of going crazy due to the coincidence between the reopening of schools, the peak of the flu and the launch of the anti-Covid vaccination campaign. It is no longer the time to play with colors, disorienting the population, now psychologically and economically depleted by the continuous and unpredictable tug of war until the last minute: the Government and the Regions cannot limit themselves to fearing the third wave, they must stop it ”
