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The epidemic does not stop. Rather. There are 18,236 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours in Italy. Yesterday there were 17,572 infections despite 14 thousand more tests. The result is that the positivity rate increases by one percentage point to 9.8. Cases are also increasing compared to last Thursday, when 16,999 positives were found in more than 171,000 swabs. In short, as we have been repeating for days, everything indicates that the curve is no longer flexing.
And the numbers speak volumes. As Lorenzo Ruffino points out on Twitter, if we take the cases between Monday and Thursday compared to last week, there has been a worsening:
Cases between Monday and Thursday
this week: 62,682
last week: 58,317
two weeks ago: 79,661
three weeks ago: 101,018
four weeks ago: 130,003
Cases between Monday and Thursday
– this week: 62,682
– last week: 58,317
– two weeks ago: 79,661
– three weeks ago: 101,018
– four weeks ago: 130,003Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -32%
– buffers: -11%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 17, 2020
The variation with respect to the average of the last four weeks was -32%, while the tampons decreased by 11.
Nor does it stop the death curve as Davide Torlo points out on Twitter. Also in this case, compared to last week, there has been a slight increase in victims. A figure that may not be a trend indication, but has yet to be recorded. According to most experts, the number of victims should, in any case, decrease in the coming days due to the decrease in infections registered two or three weeks ago.
Deaths between Monday and Thursday
this week: 2700
last week: 2,548
two weeks ago: 3,134
three weeks ago: 3,027
four weeks ago: 2,641
Some positive signs come from hospitals. In intensive care, the balance between admissions and discharges has decreased by 71 units in the last twenty-four hours (yesterday -77), while hospitalized patients with symptoms have decreased by 470 units. However, according to data processed by Agenas (National Agency for Regional Health Services), we are still above the risk threshold of 30%. And it should be noted that despite the decline in recent weeks, 41% of wards in non-critical areas are still occupied by Covid patients. The road is still long.
On the other hand, it is worth noting an element of no small importance: the number of admissions to intensive care (net of exits) continues to be very high, although, as we have seen, services continue to empty because fewer patients are admitted than those who are admitted. they leave because they have recovered or unfortunately passed away.
- December 17, 183
- December 16, 191
- December 15, 199
- December 14, 138
- December 13, 152
- December 12, 195
- December 11, 208
- December 10, 251
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 3, 217
Coronavirus: the yellow zone does not work
But why doesn’t the curve go down anymore? According to news agencies, during the government-regions confrontation yesterday, the Minister of Health Speranza would have indicated that if in the red regions the the contagion curve has bent, In some yellow regions – an emblematic case is that of Veneto, but Lazio is also beginning to worry – there is a dangerous increase in cases and hospitalizations. Are we doing something wrong? The immunologist from the University of Padua Antonella Viola spoke today about the Veneto case, commenting on the epidemiological data on Facebook. It is not true that everything is fine with us, only that it seems more positive because we make more tampons than others: we would not have hospitals in crisis and such a high number of deaths ”. “When it was decided to attribute colors to the different Regions based on the spread of the infection and the other parameters identified by the Government, Veneto started with a high spread of the virus (number of infections and Rt) but, explains Viola, it succeeded . to avoid the orange zone thanks to the goodness of the other indicators (diagnosis and treatment). But of course the virus continued to circulate also due to the incorrect behavior of many and the absence of controls. So there is no mystery, this simply tells us the criteria must be reviewed because they do not work well, in the sense that they must be weighed in another way if we want to reduce contagion ”.
Andrea Crisanti also the yellow zone does not work. “Veneto should now do 2/3 weeks of the red zone, go back to molecular testing and apply rapid tests for community screening.” These are the words of the microbiologist to the microphones of ’24Mattino’ on Radio 24. “The yellow areas do not have sufficient limitations to block transmission,” he added, “they are also classified as such based on the theoretical capacity of places in intensive care , but the number of ICUs depends not only on beds but also on staff. The second point is the inappropriate use of rapid tests which, with low sensitivity, cannot be used as a preventive measure to protect vulnerable communities, so instead of a barrier we created a gruyere. ”
It remains to be understood to what extent they could affect the measures that the government is preparing to put in place for the Christmas holidays. Massimo Galli, chief physician at the Sacco hospital in Milan, he is not very optimistic. Could eight days of the red zone, in streaks and starts to cover Christmas and New Years, be enough to prevent a Covid-19 rebound? “I hope so, but at the moment I don’t know,” he said along with Adnkronos. “Actually, because there have been several days when things have turned out differently.” At this point, the infectious disease specialist thinks like Antonella Viola. That the yellow zone did not work, “it was an absolutely expected event -observes Galli-. The more restrictions are imposed, the more limited is the possibility of contagion and the risk of spreading the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic.” In short, these weeks of slowdown in the yellow zone could cost us something. “Obviously yes, this is fear – he emphasizes – let’s see how it goes”. For Galli, the decisions of the governments of other countries that have adopted a hard blockade are “justified”, while in Italy “we are at a point where at least a precise indication has been given” of what will happen during the holidays. . “Hopefully it applies and we don’t get into trouble.” It will be enough
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