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While in all Italian regions, and at the national level, the new cases of coronavirus infection discovered are decreasing, in Veneto it is not happening: the region is currently the one with the most positive cases in relation to the population, and the only one in the world. that are increasing. . In his daily press conference in which he comments on the data, the president of the region Luca Zaia attributed the situation in part to the greater amount of tests – but the region has the peculiarity of counting both the molecular and the fast ones, there we come- and partly from more unpredictable circumstances: “Covid is also a matter of luck: it started in the Northwest, now it has passed to the Northeast.
Perhaps the unpleasant epidemiological situation in neighboring Slovenia, one of the worst in Europe, is influencing to some extent, but it seems to have played a decisive role mainly in the fact that Veneto, since the introduction of differentiated measures at the regional level, at first November has always been classified as a yellow zone and therefore with lesser restrictions. It is the only region in northern Italy together with the province of Trento, which together with Friuli Venezia Giulia – orange in the second half of November – is the place where the incidence of coronavirus in the population has remained highest.
If Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, Lombardy and the province of Bolzano from November until today have had a red zone period – and therefore with travel bans and closed shops, bars and restaurants – and if Liguria, Emilia-Romagna and Friuli Venezia Giulia were orange, the Ministry of Health decided that the yellow zone was sufficient for Veneto and the province of Trento. The system with which the Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità evaluate the level of epidemiological risk in the regions is quite complicated, and considers in the 21 indicators that mainly evaluate the value of Rt and the impact on the health system, and other factors such as the effectiveness of contact tracing and, of course, the circulation of the virus.
However, it is not certain that a region with a higher incidence of the virus would be classified at a higher risk level: Calabria was a famous example, immediately red zone despite relatively low infections. According to the latest ISS monitoring, Veneto and Molise are the only regions where the mean RT calculated over 14 days is still greater than 1 (1.01 for Veneto, 1.48 for Molise). It is followed by Friuli Venezia Giulia with 0.91 and the province of Bolzano with 0.89. But according to the latest update of the indicators considered by the ISS to determine the level of risk in the regions, contact tracing continues to work relatively well in Veneto, and the hospital situation is on the average of other yellow regions.
In recent weeks, however, the hypothesis of a passage from Veneto to the orange zone had been raised on several occasions, which at one point Zaia had defined as “just around the corner” (“if not the red one” ). In the end it was not decided, among some criticisms: in recent days, the microbiologist from the University of Padua Andrea Crisanti had wondered why Veneto was still a yellow zone “if the Lombardy with fewer cases has become a red zone “.
Taking into account the cases of positivity discovered in the 14 days prior to a given date, it is possible to make an estimate – very rough, but useful for statistical purposes – of the cases of “active” positivity at a given time. In fact, the period of negativization of a person is usually estimated at a couple of weeks, from when he discovers that he is infected. The peak of total positives – calculated in this way, which is again an approximation – was reached by the various regions in the second half of November, and since then there has been a decline everywhere. Except in Veneto, where today there are more than then and have even reached their absolute peak. In the province of Trento, although much less than elsewhere, they have nevertheless declined.
In relation to the population, the peak of positives in Veneto is still lower than that reached in Lombardy and in the province of Bolzano, but it is higher than in other regions that have been orange areas, such as Friuli Venezia Giulia or Emilia-Romagna. .
In terms of population-related deaths in the second wave, the situation in Veneto appears more similar, if not better, than that of neighboring regions. The curve is constantly growing, while for example in Lombardy it has been decreasing for a couple of weeks: but it has a trend not unlike that of Emilia-Romagna, and currently the mortality is significantly lower than in Friuli Venezia Giulia, and comparable to that of the province of Trento.
It is true that in Veneto hospital pressure has always remained significantly lower than in most other northern regions, however, compared to Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and the province of Bolzano, patients admitted to units intensive care services have not decreased in recent weeks, and in fact continue to increase, as is happening in the province of Trento and Friuli Venezia Giulia.
Zaia has often repeated that in Veneto there was much less hospital pressure than in neighboring regions. Veneto has a thousand beds in intensive care, and the percentage of hospitalized Covid patients of the total available places has remained significantly lower than the national average and some other northern regions. In fact, it has remained between 30 and 35% in the last three weeks: in Piedmont, that is, it has exceeded 60%. The saturation of Veneto, however, was very similar to that of Friuli Venezia Giulia and Emilia-Romagna, which were orange areas.
While elsewhere this percentage has generally decreased in recent weeks, in Veneto it has grown, albeit slightly. In the province of Trento, saturation not only increased rather than decreased, but also reached the worrying level of 60%.
One more confirmation that the hospital situation in Veneto is not improving, although it is still better than the current and past in other northern regions, are the data on new daily admissions to intensive care, published since the beginning of December and useful to have a image. the evolution of pressure on hospitals. Relative to population, admissions in Veneto were the highest in all of northern Italy and followed a slightly upward trend, as did those in the province of Trento.
In recent days the high percentage of positive swabs over the total of those registered in Veneto has been discussed. It is a complicated matter. The problem is that the region has chosen to use a different strategy than the other regions in tests– Relies heavily on rapid antigen tests, which are faster and cheaper than swabs, but less sensitive. Veneto is using them in combination with the molecular ones, and in fact keeps its own count of the positives discovered in relation to the total of the tests carried out: the rate of positivity that results in Zaia, therefore, is much lower than that obtained considering the only molecular buffers, as is normally done.
In the second half of November, for example, the region performed an average of 25,000 antigen tests per day and 16,000 molecular swabs. It is possible that with this strategy Veneto partially succeeds in making a first “skimming” on the subjects to be tested with rapid swabs, thus achieving a concentration of part of the molecular swab operations in people who already suspect they are positive. This may be a partial explanation for the higher positivity rate, which has however increased a few percentage points in the last two weeks.
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