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To achieve the collective immunity (guaranteed by a coverage of 70% of the population) that the CTS hypothesizes at the end of October 2021, it will be necessary to continue the anti-Covid vaccination campaign. And it will not be easy at all even if the EU Commission has bought from 6 different producers precisely to ensure diversification and coverage against any failure of the vaccine. Policy wise because vaccines with problems and still far from being approved are more than one. The difficulties encountered by the Franco-British SanofiGsk vaccine – which will not be ready until the end of 2021 but only in 2022 after the less good results than expected from the first clinical studies – are not an excessively serious problem because in the Italian vaccination plan , where they are present with 40.38 million doses of 202.57 …
Reach group immunity (guaranteed by a coverage of 70% of the population) that the CTS hypothesizes to reach by the end of October 2021, it will be necessary to give continuity to Anti Covid vaccination campaign. And it won’t be easy at all even if the EU Commission has bought 6 different manufacturers precisely to ensure diversification and hedge against the failures of a vaccine. Policy wise because vaccines with problems and still far from being approved are more than one. the difficulty found by British franc vaccine SanofiGsk -which will not be ready until the end of 2021 but only in 2022 after the results less good than expected from the first clinical studies- are not an excessively serious problem because in the Italian vaccination plan, where they are also present with 40,38 million Doses of 202.57 million in total, were expected only in the first and second four months of 2022, each for 20 million and 190 thousand doses.
The survey: 8 out of 10 Italians are willing to do it
Much more delicate for the achievement of herd immunity is the situation of the AstraZenecaOxfordIrbm Vaccine that was expected in 16 million and 15 thousand doses in the first quarter of 2021 and in 24 million and 225 thousand doses in the second quarter of next year: more than 40 million doses with which to vaccinate 20 million people. If it doesn’t come until summer, or in the fall of 2021, the reduction of a few months of the coverage objectives is fatal. A perspective that makes connoisseurs shake their wrists. The company professes optimism. “We are in the process. Last week – said Lorenzo Wittum, CEO of AstraZeneca Italia yesterday – we published the data from the phase 3 studies of the vaccine in the Lancet. We presented, as part of the ongoing review process, these data to Ema , these are two packages, the last of which was sent on Tuesday. Assuming that the regulatory shipment is completed in the next few days and that in the second half of January there is an approval by Ema, we could all the member states of the EU in 24 hours “. Who knows.
To reduce the damage a little compared to a deferral at least in the first trimester of the AstraZeneca vaccine it would be important to have 2 million doses of Curevac (yet to be approved) is expected between January and April. To reach the end of the month in the second quarter of 2021, the contribution of Curevac (almost 5.4 million doses) and especially the first massive dose of Vacino Johnson & Johnson (which is valid for a quarter of the European vaccination package) which should give 14.8 million doses in view of the shipment of monstre in the third quarter: 32.3 million doses.
the the vaccination plan is hanging by a thread, that of the efficacy and approval of vaccines, also because bad luck wanted the vaccines that Europe has focused more on – AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Curevac – I am all still in phase three and nobody knows if and when they will be approved by the EMA. Also for this reason it would be important to take a faster step in the administration of the Pfizer vaccine and perhaps, in view of the campaign mass vaccination – reconsider the opportunity to use i 1200 gazebo pavilions (currently just a good project, but we do not know if they will be ready by the end of February, a well founded doubt given the difficulty of building any structure in Italy) and rather opt for ASL (or other) ready structures, to try to tighten times.
Other unknown and the computer reservation system vaccination, distribution management and pharmacovigilance, that the extraordinary commissioner structure is working with Poste and Eni: Arcuri assures that it will be ready on time, but the difficulties shown by the Immuni application do not give certainty. The question of personnel must also be defined. 2,692 people are needed to cover Pfizer’s vaccination, but since they cannot be hired before mid-January, they will be replaced by local health authorities next month. But in February, with the other vaccines on the way, 7,771 and 12,843 will be needed starting in March. Since then, no further delays are allowed.
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