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The curve bends, but the less it closes, the slower the decline in infections. That is why today’s figures “do not reassure” and the fear that they are growing vacation season become the incubator in which SARS-CoV-2 regains vigor. In summary: “We risk being in the cool already in January ”, warns the infectious diseases specialist Massimo galli referring in particular to health facilities, which would again be under pressure. “It doesn’t take much,” reflects the head of the Department of Infectious Diseases of theSacco Hospital from Milan. And it would all happen just when the start vaccination campaign, so wait one “Alliance”, which until now is lacking with young people, to make it truly massive, otherwise the virus “will continue to subject us to economic costs and organizational that we could avoid. “First Christmas is involved and the discussion about which anti-Covid rules should be introduced, also because in January the return to school, which has a “relevance” in the spread of the virus due to the “movements that occur upstream and downstream of the hours spent in the classroom.”
Teacher, there will be more restrictions during the holidays. Is it really the fault of the citizens and the gatherings we witness during the weekend or maybe it is because the infections are still too high and the braking is slow?
To decide to take certain positions, something has changed. Otherwise, why is the Scientific Technical Committee asking the government to toughen up even more? Are we all eager to establish what some daredevils call the dictatorship of virologists, or are the numbers not reassuring? I would say the second. There are elements of concern because the curve is slowing down but not with the speed that was desirable and with evident differences within the country. The limited closure in recent months is causing a prolonged decline. In other words: the less it closes, the longer the slowdown process takes.
So we are not in a position to spend Christmas as planned just two weeks ago?
If there is a relaxation of the measures in the areas related to the possibility of further spread of the infection, while still having many viruses around, the chances of the infection re-emerging increase. That is why we run the risk of having problems already in January, with the resurgence of phenomena that we would have liked to forget after the first blockade and, instead, have returned. It is only worth mentioning the large number of deaths, people who unfortunately weeks ago we could not save from this disease. In addition, the death curve also decreases depending on how much movement we have managed to limit over time. And we are always attentive to the number of hospitalized, the most robust data to understand the trend of the epidemic. Fortunately we saw it flex, but it takes very little for it to rise.
In this situation, is it possible, as planned, that the schools will reopen on January 7?
One thing should be very, very clear: schools are not irrelevant in the spread of the virus. Not because of the environmental context, but because of the movements that occur upstream and downstream of the hours spent in the classroom. Miur partial data, published in recent weeks and updated to October 31, spoke of 65 thousand cases of contagion related to the school. On that date, the total number of confirmed infections since the start of the pandemic was 351,386. Therefore, it is very important to reopen, but it must be done by managing the related problems well, starting with transport.
With a total lockdown in November, would Italy be in a different scenario?
It’s easy to answer yes, even without cross-proof. It is a fact that a radical blockade, like the one from March to May, has worked. It is a pity that popular participation was palpable during that period and there was great support for health facilities. On the other hand, in recent weeks a part, albeit a minority, of the population has shown signs of intolerance. In this sense, everyone, I speak mainly of those who have responsibilities, we have not managed to develop a true alliance with young people.
What do you mean?
With them in particular, it is not worth simply being prescriptive. There are those who think of treating the elderly as empty to get rid of them, except to back down, and there are those who give the young an image of unconscious and miserable. A wrong photograph, distorted and also counterproductive. Instead, they should be part of a culture of prevention.
Also in the context of the vaccination campaign?
We should first stop discussing the obligation or not. Rather, we invest in information by avoiding wall against wall between positions that are detrimental to the cause. We must persuade and explain transparently, otherwise we will end up in trouble even in this case. Also, in the vaccine we need a very large participation to obtain a result. The alternative is to have a part of the population protected, another reluctant to vaccinate and the virus that continues to subject us to economic and organizational costs that we could avoid with a really well-done campaign.
A possible third wave will start with some 10,000 cases per day and 20,000 hospitalized. The second started with a few hundred infections and some hospitalized. Is this a significant difference?
These days we are wondering dramatically which and how many departments we can afford to return to their usual destination, given the decrease in hospitalizations. We will divide between ‘aperturisti’ and the cautious, I’m afraid I have to take sides, numbers in hand, between the cautious. This worries me very much, because the longer the wards become to treat patients with Covid, the less able we will be to effectively help other patients with consequences that have probably already been and still will be serious. The nearly 700,000 deaths in 2020 that the president of Istat spoke of are a disconcerting figure. In that dramatic number we have Covid deaths, unregistered Covid deaths and deaths from causes that, since Covid exists, we have not been able to cure. At some point, we will have a complete understanding of the phenomenon. Meanwhile, it is sad to have to discuss these things.
What do you mean?
In the last days, the congress of the Italian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases was held, of which I was president in the 2018-2019 biennium. I made a statement referring to an objective and historical data on infections by multi-resistant bacteria, which is already one of the main causes of death in our country and runs the risk of overcoming cancers between now and 2050. There were those who called me a terrorist. However, I expressed my concern, at a time when we are thinking about how to rethink the health organization, in an area where we are already the black jersey of Europe. A known fact, a strategic problem. We have reached the point where this too becomes a matter of controversy and politics. So the situation is really serious.
Twitter: @marcoprocs me @andtundo
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