Covid Italy, the virus does not kill everywhere in the same way: the map

Published on: 12/15/2020 12:21 PM

The Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus does not kill in the same way throughout Italy. Mortality from Covid-19 in our country, or more precisely fatality, “manifests itself with extreme variability in the regions, ranging from a maximum of 5.4% positives in Lombardy to a minimum of 1.3% in Campania, with a 3.5% average nationwide“Focusing on the October-December 2020 period, in particular the data from October 12 to December 6, it follows that “Covid-19 mortality levels in Italian regions vary significantly, with the same prevalence of new infections and regardless of the age structure of the resident population “.

Drawing the map is aanalysis prepared by the National Health Observatory in the Italian regions of the Catholic University – The Rome campus, the director Walter Ricciardi and the scientific director Alessandro Solipaca, carried out on the information currently available relative to the last 2 months in Italy and on the collection since the beginning of the health crisis in Europe. Experts confirm “what has already emerged since the beginning of the Covid-19 emergency”, that is, “the pandemic has had different intensity and lethality both in Italy and in Europe. This evidence must be analyzed and understood by medical science and the experts. ” organization of health systems, since the differences found – they underline – are not attributable solely to the fragility of the elderly population, the most affected by the virus.

From the start of the pandemic until December 14 – read the analysis – in our country they are registered 65,011 deaths from Covid-19, of which 36.7% in Lombardy, 11% in Piedmont and 10.2% in Emilia Romagna. The relationship between deaths and infections, therefore technically the lethality of Sars-CoV-2 infection, stands at 3.5% at the national level, with Lombardy experiencing the highest value (5.4%) and Campania the lowest (1.3%). According to data published by the Higher Institute of Health, updated as of December 2, the average age of deceased patients with positive Covid is 80 years. A figure that, from the third week of February, has been increasing until reaching 85 years in the first week of July, and then falling slightly below 80 years from September.

Experts emphasize that although the first epidemic wave essentially affected only the Center-North of the Peninsula, the second developed throughout the territory, however, it continues to show significant differences between regions, especially with regard to the number of deaths from Covid. In particular, ‘zooming in’ on the period from October 12 to December 6, it is observed that mortality levels in the different regions vary significantly despite the same prevalence of infections and regardless of the age of the resident population.

The analysis also examines the trend of deaths reported during 2 weeks relative to infections recorded in the previous 2 weeks, in order to consider the time lapse between diagnosis and death. When comparing the period from November 23 to December 6 with that of October 26 to November 8, the Observatory researchers observe a significant increase in the variability of the incidence of deaths and infections among the regions with the highest level of infections. This dynamic has weakened the link between infections and deaths, a signal to experts that factors of different nature are involved in this relationship.