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the COVID-19 it does not kill in the same way throughout Italy. Mortality from coronavirus in our country, or more precisely fatality, “manifests itself with extreme variability in the regions, ranging from a maximum of 5.4% positives in Lombardy to a minimum of 1.3% in Campania, with an average of 3.5% nationwide “.
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Focusing on the October-December 2020 period, in particular the data from October 12 to December 6, it can be seen that “the mortality levels of COVID-19 in Italian regions vary considerably, with the same prevalence of new infections and regardless of the age structure of the resident population. “The map is drawn up by an analysis prepared by the National Observatory of Health in the Italian Regions of the Catholic University – Rome campus, director Walter Ricciardi and the scientific director Alessandro Solipaca, on the information currently available relative to the last 2 months in Italy and on the data collected since the start of the health crisis in Europe.
Experts confirm “what has already emerged since the beginning of the Covid-19 emergency”, that is, “the pandemic had different intensity and lethality both in Italy and in Europe.” These evidences will have to be analyzed and understood by experts in medical science and the organization of the health system, since the differences found – they emphasize – are not attributable only to the fragility of the elderly population, the most affected by the virus ”.
The most affected regions
From the start of the pandemic until December 14 – read the analysis – 65,011 deaths from Covid-19 have been registered in our country, of which 36.7% in Lombardy, 11% in Piedmont and 10.2 % in Emilia Romagna. The relationship between deaths and infections, therefore technically the lethality of infection by Sars-CoV-2, stands at 3.5% at the national level, with the Lombardy experiencing the highest value (5.4%) and the Campania the lowest (1.3%). According to data published by the Higher Institute of Health, updated as of December 2, the average age of deceased patients positive for Covid is 80 years. A figure that, from the third week of February, has been increasing until reaching 85 years in the first week of July, and then falling slightly below 80 years from September. Experts highlight that, although the first epidemic wave essentially affected only the Center-North of the Peninsula, the second developed throughout the territory, however, it continues to show significant differences between regions, especially with regard to the number of deaths from Covid .
In particular, ‘extended in the period from October 12 to December 6, it is observed that mortality levels in the different regions vary significantly despite the same prevalence of infections and regardless of the age of the resident population. The analysis also examines the trend of deaths reported during 2 weeks relative to infections recorded in the previous 2 weeks, in order to consider the time lapse between diagnosis and death. When comparing the period from November 23 to December 6 with that of October 26 to November 8, the Observatory researchers observe a significant increase in the variability of the incidence of deaths and infections among the regions with the highest level of infections. This dynamic has weakened the link between infections and deaths, a signal to experts that factors of different nature are involved in this relationship.
The facts
“The variability observed in our country is also found between European countries,” says Solipaca, who expects “careful reflections on the experience that is maturing around the world, to avoid errors and prevent other future health emergencies. It will be necessary to establish – specifies the scientific director of the Observatory – which of the following factors influenced the effects and dynamics of the pandemic in the population: virus aggression, performance of health systems or incomplete data from the tracking system. For this, it is necessary to implement more effective surveillance systems than the one that currently exists in Italy and the rest of European countries “, because” part of the variability observed in the data is undoubtedly due to the imprecision with which the cases occur. of contagion and its monitoring “.
According to the authors of the analysis, in conclusion, it is “difficult to establish the reasons for the regional and European differences” found so far in the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of infections and deaths “, which must be sought from a very wide range of factors: organizational deficiencies, initial delays in understanding the severity of the emergency, deficiencies in infection tracking systems, different levels of virus aggression, individual behaviors, and central and local government choices. Another possible interpretive path is that some Territories are affected by a high level of mobility, and these are places where most of the social and economic privileges are given. These areas, in all probability, have been subjected to a higher risk of contagion. Lombardy, for example, is the region with the highest travel intensity and where a very high number of infections has been recorded. ‘
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