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There are two keywords that convinced the government to work on a Christmas mini-closure that will take all of Italy into the red or orange zone from December 24 to January 7: plateau and third wave.
What convinced the government to keep Italy in the red or orange zone until January
The word “plateau”, which literally means “plateau”, represents the moment when an epidemic stops growing (having reached its peak) but also struggles to register the fall in cases, or their decrease as great as growth. In this phase, typical of an epidemic such as the coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the Spanish flu of the last century, it is necessary to maintain all restrictions until the curve takes the direction of a “marked decline”, as the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco a The impression. Yesterday the Civil Protection bulletin registered a decrease in positives (17,938 compared to 19903 on Saturday) but with fewer buffers (152,697, forty thousand less than the previous day).
What is concerning, however, is the positivity rate, which rose to 11.7% from 10.1% on Saturday. A parameter that “remains high”, observes Pregliasco, who points out that “we continue in a plateau situation that does not turn towards a marked decline. The curves relative to the different parameters begin to flex, but all very slowly.” Among these, that of the victims: they were 649 on Saturday and 484 yesterday.
The danger pointed out by the government’s Scientific Technical Committee is that a relaxation of holiday restrictions will lead us to a third wave of the epidemic when the vaccination plan announced yesterday by Domenico Arcuri for mid-January has not yet begun. And it is concrete: Michele Bocci in Republic It points out that in recent days, movements on foot and by car in Italy have once again been similar to those of mid-October-late November, that is, before the tricolor zones were adopted to classify the rigidity of the restrictive measures . For this reason, the technicians were summoned to a meeting yesterday: the images of the gatherings in the big cities convinced the government to work on a new hardening that will take Italy to the red or orange zone until January 7 in the worst of the cases. According to the CTS, a week is enough to raise the contagion curve.
A new Dpcm for Italy in the red or orange zone from Christmas to New Year?
The plateau and the risk of the third wave
In this perspective, the CTS will explain today that there are health risks: “those, in fact, of seeing again the spread of infections and consequently also of observing a growth in ordinary hospitalizations and in intensive care. Technicians certainly do not they will oppose the hypothesis of restrictive measures that could be advanced, already today or in the next few days. ”Which one?
The hypotheses are to close all commercial establishments – including bars and restaurants – except those for basic needs until the end of the holidays, or to implement restrictions from December 24 to January 1, or even launch a kind of orange zone that would be left open. stories. It is difficult for the government to convince itself of the lockout of commercial businesses during Christmas, so the hypotheses on the ground are:
- closing of bars and restaurants on holidays and days before holidays;
- early curfew at 8pm or even 6pm;
- Prohibition of leaving home to visit family or friends.
A kind of reinforced orange zone for a mini lock on the German model. Before the third wave overwhelms the hospitals and waiting for the vaccination plan. When will all this end? Maybe in April, maybe even later.
