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With 4,092 new cases in the last 24 hours, Veneto surpassed 190,000 infections on Sunday, for a total of 190,641 positives since the start of the pandemic. Deaths increase by 32, with a total of 4,801. However, pressure on hospitals is slowing, which registered 7 new hospitalizations in non-critical wards, with a total of 2,858, and a decrease of 4 patients in intensive care, with 369 hospitalized. In the follow-up report edited by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) for the week ending December 6, the incidence per 100 thousand inhabitants of Veneto is the highest in Italy, as is the Rt, e The curve which measures the trend of infection growth has not peaked, as seems to have happened in the other Regions.
Concern
What is happening in Veneto? As indicated here, it is true that the incidence and number of positives, like other parameters, depend on how many tests are performed per day and Veneto has always performed more than all: the Region has stated that contact tracing reaches 85.5% of suspected cases compared to 60% of the national average (averaging 60,000 tampons a day) and defies the government’s decision not to count unhealthy rapids. In the number of hospitalizations and deathsHowever, the ability to track the epidemic does not weigh. The Region has exceeded the peak of 2,865 hospitalized in non-critical areas and 356 in resuscitation registered on March 29, at the peak of the first wave and, although some indicators have improved compared to a week ago (incidence and Rt among all) , the situation is worrying. The Veneto Public Health Coordination (CoVeSaP) wrote to the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, asking him to “urgently reevaluate the current yellow risk classification”, and to the governor Luca Zaia to urge “the immediate adoption of stricter measures.”
Strong yellow zone: why?
The most surprising fact, however, is that, even with a high incidence, Veneto has always been considered a yellow zone. The very decision of the government of November 3 to start with a classification, for Veneto, from the yellow zone, was plagued with controversies and discussions, but finally motivated by the ability of the Region to control the epidemic, which paradoxically It “pays” for the maintenance of its health system and the capacity of territorial monitoring, never to end up in the orange zone. “Precisely because it has not suffered significant restrictions, such as the prohibition of moving between municipalities, it probably pays for a high number of infections,” admitted the governor, Luca Zaia. “There were already many cases in Veneto in November. We kept everything open because we were in the yellow zone and the contagion curve was not going down. It is normal for the virus to continue circulating, I’m not surprised – he says Antonella Viola, immunologist, professor of Pathology at the University of Padua -. Yesterday Padua was full of people: cities are like that. On the one hand I see the lines to enter the stores one at a time, on the other the bars outside with groups of people without masks drinking, smoking, chatting and all hanging out. The aperitif used to be at six, now it’s after three. It is no longer the time to appeal to the population, you have to do the checks and give the finesFaced with the scenarios of the meeting, the Region has promulgated some more restrictive regulations (such as the obligation to drink at the table in bars starting at 11 am), but waits every Friday for the Minister of Health to sign the possible transfer to another band.
What happened in germany
Even in the presence of good follow-up and a higher number of hospital beds per capita than in many other regions of Italy, however, there is a time when case growth cannot be contained and the final steps, which are so unpleasant, have yet to be taken. This was the case in Germany, a country praised for its resistance to the spread of Covid-19. In one of the most prepared nations in Europe, also in terms of health services, the The “lock light” has failed, as noted by Chancellor Angela Merkel, forced to launch a total blockade (with measures similar to ours in spring) of 24 days that will begin next Wednesday. Also in Germany, therefore, having reached a certain number of cases, the Health Offices have been overwhelmed, the wide availability of intensive care has not been supported by an equally high number of doctors and nurses for beds and has even been started to track flaccid, forcing to limit tests to only symptomatic. “In fact, it appears that the countries (or regions) that have been imposed more restrictions have an earlier descent of the epidemic curve – observes Paolo Bonanni, epidemiologist, professor of Hygiene at the University of Florence -. The regions that were in yellow because, fortunately for them, they have less dramatic indicators for the occupation of hospital places, they “paid” it in terms of the proportion of people who did not strictly comply with the common provisions. After months I still see young people and adults talking with the mask under their chin, one 30 cm from the other. It is emblematic ».
The moment of closings
Like Germany, maybe Veneto should have closed earlier. It is difficult to know when to do it, but some retrospective studies have shown that when the rising curve of infections increases (perhaps “exponentially”), what matters most the time of closing interventions. Just a few more days at that stage carries a high price to pay in terms of deaths. The calculation was made from a study of University of Colombia from New York in the first wave, which showed that the same intervention was applied only 1-2 weeks earlier, It would have been enough to prevent 61.6% of the infections and 55.0% of the deaths reported on May 3 in the USA nationwide.
In the period between Sunday 13 and Sunday 20 December, however, the movements and activities allowed in Italy (and in Veneto) will increase: “It is a situation of maximum alert: you have to tighten your shirts a little more, or Decide to carry out the checks, “concludes Professor Viola.
December 14, 2020 (change December 14, 2020 | 09:12)
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