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Sunday December 13 is the last day for negotiations between London and Brussels. These are the consequences if the parties fail to reach an agreement
by Nicol Degli Innocenti
Sunday December 13 is the last day for negotiations between London and Brussels. These are the consequences if the parties fail to reach an agreement
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Four and a half years have passed since the referendum that, surprisingly, in June 2016 sanctioned the decision of British citizens to leave the European Union after 43 years of membership. Since then, bilateral negotiations to determine future relations have continued with ups and downs, with missed deadlines, lost ultimatums and unavoidable extensions.
Britain’s painstaking agreement to withdraw from the EU was ratified in January 2020. Negotiations to reach a trade deal have continued to this day. The agreement is 96-97% complete, according to experts, but has not been concluded due to differences in three key points: a level playing field, governance and fisheries. Technical problems have been largely resolved. The last obstacle seems insurmountable because for London it is no longer a pragmatic but an ideological question.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised his faithful to regain lost sovereignty. There is always the hope of compromise and agreement in extremis. Today December 13 is the day of the umpteenth established period. If, on the contrary, both parties surrender to the evidence and declare “no agreement”, the consequences will be multiple and profound. Let’s see some of them.
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If not, if there is no agreement, on January 1, 2021, Great Britain will exit the customs union and the single market, then immediately border controls and tariffs on goods in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization ( WTO). .
90% of British products exported to the EU are expected to be subject to WTO tariffs, ranging from 11% on average for agricultural products to 35% for dairy products and more than 60% for some types of meat. That is why Tesco, the largest British supermarket chain, expects price increases of 5% in case of not reaching an agreement. Non-tariff barriers (quotas, border controls, phytosanitary controls, security, customs declarations) are equally onerous.
