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In the end, it is always and only a matter of time. When the time comes to take stock, however partial, of this second wave, this time we will also count the weeks of delay in making decisions. Meanwhile, there are only a few days left for Italy to overtake the UK in absolute number of deaths from Covid-19. And at that time, we will become the worst in Europe. We are a country of the elderly, but we are not a country of the elderly. We have the second highest average age on the continent and last March we discovered that we did not know how to protect the most fragile sector of the population. Something changed, not enough.
The comparison
Updated to December 9, the ranking of deaths attributed to Covid-19 of European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, sees the United Kingdom at 63,179, followed by Italy (62,626), France (57,043), Spain (47,334), Poland (21,630) and Germany (20,737). Pure statistics, albeit depressing. It does not make text from a scientific point of view, because it depends on the population of each country. In the medical-epidemiological field, the ranking that takes into account the number of deaths calculated per million inhabitants is considered more. And here things change. First on our continent comes Belgium, with 1,516 victims. Then Italy, with 1,022. Spain is third with 1,005. The countries we look at most frequently in terms of comparison due to a population comparable to ours in number and age come much later. The United Kingdom, which was the black sheep of the continent, has 919 deaths per million people. France, 867. Fortunately for her, Germany (247) is much deeper, despite the recent cry of pain from Angela Merkel, who finds the price of 590 deaths in a single day unacceptable, the peak reached last Tuesday. Even the plausible global fatality rate produced by ISPI based on demographics does not prove in our favor. Japan is in the lead, with 12.9 deaths expected per thousand infections, second is Italy (11.1), then Greece (10.8), Portugal and Germany with 10.5. Spain and France are both at 9.7.
The numbers
We have long understood that not everything is going well, but it is really bad, statistically and beyond. In March it was a tsunami, to which we reacted by decreeing the total closure first. This was a long storm, during which the collapse of the health system was not repeated. A new ISPI study estimates that around 2.5 million people were infected between March and April, while as of October we already exceeded 3.5 million positives for coronavirus. We have protected our elders better, as evidenced by a lower fatality rate than in the first wave. In March, 11.5 died for every 1,000 infected. Today the estimate of 9 / 1,000. Still, the total number of deaths this time could exceed last spring. We are already at 26,000 victims compared to the previous 35,000. The final projection says that we will reach 40,000.
The cause
There is not just one, and all are linked together, starting with ancient times. The disaster of basic medicine, with the few remaining doctors sent into the fray, remained that way. A disarmament that comes from afar. Roberto Bernabei, one of the most important local geriatricians, recalls that during the 2003 heat wave there was a massacre of the elderly with the same pathologies that make Covid-19 lethal. Even then, something terrible happened: whoever had good and continuous care at home, did it. Those who didn’t have it, died. Much was said, nothing changes. In this area, the good news always looks ghoulish. Between March and May, 62% of those who died from Covid had an average of three other diseases, the so-called companion diseases. Today we are at 80%. If not to cure, we have learned to better treat and manage this epidemic.
Do it fast
Italy had discovered it for itself, with the tragedy of Alzano lombardo, Nembro and the entire province of Bergamo, when the rebound of responsibilities between the government and the Lombardy Region had moved the creation of the red zone in at least a week. Now there is also an investigation from Columbia University: if during the first wave, the United States and other countries had acted a week earlier than they did, they would have reduced deaths by about 50%. Two weeks? Minus 85%. Even today, when infections multiply at a lower exponent thanks to masks and spacing, the lesson should have been impressed. It was not so. A bit of the average absolution of common evil that is perhaps done by looking at those who have repeated the same mistakes.
UK vs Italy
ISPI, on the other hand, suggests a comparison with those who had everything wrong and are doing better than we are today. The UK of the late denier Boris Johnson has 68 million inhabitants, we just over 60 million. An elderly country: 24% of the population over 60 years against our 30%. In March, Italy tightened its measures six days before the United Kingdom, which was last in viral circulation.. The national average of deaths at the time of the respective lockdowns was 59 deaths per day for us, 140 for the UK. At the end of the first wave, we had a peak of 800 daily deaths, theirs 920, an average duration longer than ours. In contrast, in October, for London and its environs, the new restrictions were activated when 120 deaths were recorded every 24 hours. Ten days before Italy, which adopted the zone system when we now count 350 deaths a day. With the same progress of the infection, today the British curve is lower than ours, a daily average of 460 missing compared to our 740. Carlo La Vecchia, professor of epidemiology at the State University of Milan, estimates the time lost at twenty days. From October 10 to 30, all the indices suggested taking action, but we had to wait for the Dpcm on November 4. October was like February during the first wave. The same signs. We didn’t know it then, we didn’t understand it. This time we knew very well that immediate action was essential. The reasons for the delay are political, the conflict between the central government and the regions, the low propensity to register unpopular measures. Above all, the elderly die from the general vulgarity of the institutions. But it cannot be the only explanation, much less a justification.
December 11, 2020 (change December 11, 2020 | 07:18)
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