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The coronavirus infection curve is slowing down. This is demonstrated by the foundation’s weekly monitoring data. Gimbe, a think tank that deals with research in the health sector and that since the beginning of the pandemic has been monitoring the epidemiological situation in our country. However, the researchers note, the slowdown in new cases is overestimated by a “clear and unjustified“Buffer reduction. The numbers tell us that while they are improving, the situation remains critical: Compared to the previous week, in the period between December 2 and 8, there were still 135 thousand infections and 4,870 deaths. Pressure on hospitals is also decreasing, although hospitalizations and intensive care remain above the saturation threshold in 15 regions. Positive cases currently exceed 737,000, an amount that makes monitoring impossible. “The long winter months, the unpredictable impact of the seasonal flu, the impending yellow shift across the country, and legitimate enthusiasm for the next vaccine are all elements of the perfect storm that can trigger the third wave.“, Warns Gimbe.
So let’s take a look at the latest follow-up data from the foundation. If, as anticipated, a decrease in new cases is confirmed, it should also be underlined reduction of more than 121 thousand cases analyzed. The relationship between positive and proven cases remains substantially stable, although slightly increasing: this week, in fact, it stands at 24.8% compared to 24.7%. Currently, positive cases are down 5.4%: in the hospital setting, both hospitalizations of patients with symptoms and intensive care are decreasing. Deaths are also decreasing.
New cases, hospitalizations and deaths: data from the last week
Here are the figures for the last period examined, December 2-8.
- Deaths: 4,879 (-3.5%)
- Intensive care: -318 (-8.7%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: -2,730 (-8.3%)
- New cases: 136,493 (-17.7%)
- Positive cases currently: -42,420 (-5.4%)
- Proven cases -121,726 (-18.1%)
- Total mattresses: -142,105 (-10.1%)
“Also this week, clear signs of a slowdown in contagion are confirmed, such as the reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (8.4% vs 11.4% at the national level, also registered in all Regions) and in the number of new cases weekly, but the effect is not only due to the measures introduced“, says the president of the foundation, Nino Cartabellotta.
the relationship between positive and proven cases, but there is a reduction of 121 thousand cases analyzed, a good 18.1% less. Only five regions in the last week have subjected more people to swabs than in the previous week.
Reduction of proven cases
“Three reasonable certainties emerge from these numbers: first, that the measurements introduced have slowed the contagion; secondly, that the effect of the measures on the increase of new cases is overestimated by a consistent reduced test activity; finally that, to the invariance of measures restrictive, the descent of the curve will be very slow, certainly not comparable to that of the first wave“explains Cartabellotta. Adding that the reduction of the pool of positives currently”is slow, modest, and overestimated by the significant reduction in tampons and cases tested in recent weeks“The record of cases analyzed on average per day was registered in the week of November 4 to 11 with 124,575 swabs: compared to that peak, the drop in the last week is 36.8% less than cases analyzed.
The situation in hospitals
In other words, this improvement is underestimated. And if it is true that the restrictive measures have managed to alleviate the pressure on hospitals and intensive care units, the employment threshold for Covid patients in the wards is still above 40% and in IT 30% by up to 15 regions. This means that we are still beyond the critical threshold.
We are still in a critical phase and the follow-up has been skipped
The death curve also rises less steeply. But these data should not give a misleading picture. The situation, Cartabellotta emphasizes, still remains “severe and unstable“. And adds:”The forecast remains confidential and, to be resolved, requires rigorous and prolonged “compliance” with all individual measures, social distancing and restrictions imposed by the Government and the Regions.Renata Gili, head of research on health services at the foundation, reiterates: “We are in an extremely delicate phase of the epidemic for at least three reasons: first, with more than 700,000 positives currently it is impossible to resume contact tracking; secondly, long winter months await us, which favor the spread of all respiratory viruses; finally, until mid-January we will not know if the impact of the flu will be, as expected, more limited than in previous seasons. In this sense, reaching that moment with saturated hospitals could have disastrous consequences for people’s health and lives.“.
To conclude, Cartabellotta warns: “Two other elements complete the perfect storm threatening to unleash the third wave. On the eve of the Christmas holidays, all the Regions begin to turn yellow, a color that should not be interpreted as a green light, but it requires compliance with strict regulations to avoid gatherings and minimize social contacts between people who do not live together. Finally, the expected and (hopefully) imminent arrival of the vaccine should not be an alibi to lower our guard: in the most optimistic of forecasts, in fact, adequate protection at the population level can only be achieved in the autumn of 2021 with an adhesion of people to the campaign vaccination”.
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