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While the definition of the vaccination plan continues, improve the situation linked to the health emergency in Italy, but there is still a long way to go.
Analyzing thelatest dell’Iss report from December 2, with a reference period that runs from November 23 to 29 – many of the cases reported this week probably contracted the infection in the first half of November – a generalized improvement in the epidemic in the national territory .
Register a reduction of the transmission speed, reduction of the incidence calculated in the last 14 days and reduction of hospitalizations in the medical area and in intensive care. However, the pressure on health services remains very high.
“The incidence is still too high to allow sustainable management,” says the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve an Rt (Covid contagion index) of less than 1 throughout the national territory.
What the data say about new infections
There is a significant decrease in the incidence of new coronavirus cases nationwide in the last 14 days (590.65 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 11/23/2020 – 11/29/2020 vs 706.27 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 09/11/2020 -22/11/2020), although it remains at very high levels.
In the period from November 11 to 24, 2020, the mean transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.91. Most regions are now classified as moderate risk for uncontrolled / manageable SARS-CoV-2 transmission and for the first time after seven weeks, 2 regions become low risk.
Going specifically, all Regions / AP except 3 have a RT compatible with a type 1 scenario. All Regions, except 5, have an Rt less than 1: the other 5 are compatible with a type 2 scenario.
The emergency region by region
In particular:
- 16 Autonomous Regions / Provinces are classified as having a moderate risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 5 are highly likely to progress to high risk in the next month if current transmissibility remains unchanged: Emilia Romagna, Marche, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento, Veneto
- 2 Regions / AP are classified as low risk: Basilicata and Campania
- 3 Regions / PAs are at high risk (last week there were 10): it is Calabria, Puglia and Sardinia (the latter only as a precaution, as it cannot be reliably assessed due to insufficient surveillance data integrity at the time of assessment, also for the estimation of RT). These have been classified as high risk for 3 or more consecutive weeks, which includes specific restrictive measures to be adopted at the provincial and regional levels.
The situation in hospitals
The high incidence and the strong current impact on hospital services requires “caution”, with continuous monitoring and the need to maintain high attention on people’s behavior.
In fact, the impact of the epidemic on health services remains high. 18 Regions / PA have exceeded at least one critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area. The occupancy rate of ICU beds still exceeds the critical occupancy threshold at the national level.
In general, the number of people admitted to intensive care is decreasing, from 3,816 to 3,663; while the number of people hospitalized in medical areas went from 34,577 to 32,811.
Criticisms in data collection
Although improving, one remains widespread difficulty in maintaining high data quality informed to the integrated surveillance system both for its timeliness (delay in the notification of cases notified to the surveillance system on aggregate data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and for its completeness.
It is essential at this stage to continue maintaining the drastic reduction in physical interactions between people. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible.
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