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The combined effect of the virus and the flu, together with the easing of restrictions for Christmas, when Italy will be a single yellow zone, is worrying.
Forecasts for the future the neighbors are not good. L ‘alarm For the month of January, it is launched by the Gimbe Foundation, which for days has invited the government to be “unpopular” for the Christmas holidays, because without effective restrictions the contagion curve will rise again with devastating consequences.
The president of Gimbe, Nino Cartabellotta, does not beat around the bush: “There is a risk of slaughter, if instead of closing the second wave of Covid, we started the third. We must descend from the plateau of the second wave to avoid a third wave that starts with an advantage. “
The reasons for the possible massacre
Why? For several reasons. The first is that, according to Gimbe’s analysis, the virus will reach theirs in January peak circulation, in parallel with theinfluenza.
The second is that it is true that we will have the vaccine, but many are still there uncertainties at the time and also in the duration of immunity. In summary: if we are not sure that with the vaccine we will eradicate Covid, and right now this security does not exist, it means that the weapons to combat the pandemic are still standing. For this reason, as Cartabellotta states in an interview with the newspaper The impression, “We are still in the darkest part of the tunnel».
Third reason: loosening of restrictions. With the arrival of Christmas Italy is preparing to become a great yellow expanse. With all that this entails in terms of reopening commercial activities, increased mobility and travel, more contacts during the holidays.
All of this could result in what Gimbe Foundation define one contagion tsunami in the third wave. Also considering that Italians have a high expectation of arriving late in life, but they often arrive with many ailments and pathologies of which Covid knows how to act as a trigger.
For the moment the figures are far from those of the first wave: in the first months of the health emergency we saw 35 thousand deceased, now there are 22 thousand. Cartabellotta believes there will be another 15,000 by the end of the month, as there are currently 800,000 positives in Italy.
The other disease at the door
Then there is another danger, no less serious than those highlighted by Gimbe, namely that one disease pull the other. From the results of some studies, it is clear that the coronavirus has consequences not only in the lungs. The respiratory system is the most affected, but the aftermath Covid are also different in nature. Neurological, for example.
According to analysis by the Australian Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, the Florey, many of those who have contracted the infection face the Parkinson’s disease. They would develop a species with a greater inclination to contract this degenerative disease, due to neuronal inflammation due to the Coronavirus.
To prevent or at least limit the damage that is needed put on screen directed, the institute warns from Parkinson’s Disease Journal. Anyone who has tested positive for the virus should undergo exams to find out if you are at risk for Parkinson’s disease or if you may have already had it and are in the early stages of the disease. For example, sight and smell tests or brain scans are used to identify any motor symptoms.
To report neurological symptoms it’s a danger, according to the Australian Institute, for three out of four former Covid patients. There is talk of loss of smell and encephalitis, but it is possible that the symptoms are many more, according to the Florey scholars.
The other opinions about the coming months
Today is not a day full of good news about the start of 2021. At least this is demonstrated by the latest statements from experts such as infectious disease Matteo bassetti or the counselor of the Ministry of Health Walter Ricciardi.
The first, today, questioned the slowness with which Italy is moving to start the vaccinations. “Timing to fight an epidemic is everything. I understand that with the anti-Covid vaccination we will start after other EU countries, for example Germany – underlined Bassetti, who heads the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in Genoa -. Instead of the first of January, in Italy we should wait another month. Its alot. We should run, instead we walk. If we arrive in March-April 2021 with a inadequate coverage it will be a big problem.
As for Ricciardi, he declared with one frankness almost brutal that «December and January will be terrible months“For two reasons:” the problems of access to services and the multiple differences at the regional level. “
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