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Fausto Carioti
Some kind of miracle. That center-right who does not know if he is alive or dead, who pulls between rudeness, a threat and a theft of deputies from his partner, who is a minority in parliament and runs the risk of being so until March 2023, in short, the troubled center-right. of Salvini, Meloni and Berlusconi, has the wind in the stern in polls. And to enjoy the magical moment, in this phase, are all your parties, very rare event in the current legislature. There is one explanation, or rather two. The first is that Giuseppe Conte and your ministers have ended all the alibis that the Italians had generously granted them during the first wave of the pandemic. The government team collapses on the heads and hearts of the voters, weighing down the Democratic Party, the Five Stars and the other lists of the alliance. Fewer votes (potential, of course) for the Giallorossi, more votes for the opposition.
The second reason is that the diversity between Forza Italia on the one hand and Lega and Fratelli d’Italia on the other, evident above all in the face of European problems, produces discontent and tension, but allows the three political “products” to attract a wide range. variety. of the voters, of the moderates who would otherwise vote for Matteo renzi to those who want to see Italy outside the European Union. In other words, whether you like it or not, when Silvio Berlusconi He maintains that without his party “there would be no center right, but only a right that could neither win nor govern,” he says something that mathematics and politics confirm.
BALANCE ISSUES
There are not only advantages, of course: being different works as long as distances do not tear the coalition and individual parties apart, and what will happen inside the caravanserai called Forza Italia is still unknown. Even before the vote on the reform of the European bailout fund, scheduled for Wednesday, there could be important goodbyes. Meanwhile, however, the three acronyms grow together. If we went to the polls today, the League would win 24% of the votes, Fratelli d’Italia 16.1% and Forza Italia 7.3%. Along with the little party of Giovanni toti (Let’s change!), Estimated at around 1%, it would reach 48.5%. After the long journey of Giorgia Meloni (the Fdi in the European Championship had taken 6.5% and has not stopped since), this time it is the Carroccio (+ 0.3% in two weeks) and the Azzurri ( +0.5%) to take a leap forward. This is the story told by the most reliable numbers, obtained from the Youtrend portal by calculating the “supermedia” of the surveys carried out by the main institutes.
And the result of the sum, that 48.5%, is high enough to allow a center-right electoral alliance to obtain a majority of parliamentarians with whatever law they vote. This does not mean, however, that the electoral systems are all the same: the proportional mechanism that the ruling parties intend to implement would guarantee their opponents minimum margins of victory, much lower than those that would be obtained under the current system.
LEFT WALKING
The Giallorossi, on the other hand, stagger 41.7%, almost 7 points below the conservative, sovereign and moderate patrol. At the birth of the current executive, in September 2019, the alliance that supports him was only 0.4% less than the center-right, and what he has lost in the meantime says a lot about what Italians think about the Five Star form and the forces of the left behaved during the epidemic. The Democratic Party in the last two weeks has remained immobile at 20.4% and thus sees the League move away: the great advance dreamed of by Nicola Zingaretti can be considered a failure. Even the grillini do not fall below 15% (2 points below the disastrous result of the Europeans) and remain unrelated to the Fdi. Renzianos continue to fight at around 3.2%, but their allies from La Sinistra, a group that includes the bushes of Nicola Fratoianni and Pier Luigi Bersani and which is headed by Roberto Speranza, yield 0.3% and are below . bass from Italia Viva. The bad figures remedied in Calabria, and beyond, made the voters understand how much the minister who must defend our health is really worth.
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