[ad_1]
the countdown to italy. What we are witnessing, as if it were a secular and tragic rite in its ironic version of farce, is a compound as well as a disguise. awareness of inevitability.
For days, this country has lived only on the edge of a debate: how many people can we invite to Christmas lunch? And on New Years Eve? But above all, will I be able to travel to another municipality to sanctify the festivities? Deadly problems, certainly. Or at least useful to hide the true nature of the Suburra-style countdown that is marking the increasingly rapid descent of the sand in the hourglass.
Between December 9 and 11in fact, Italy will understand a lot about itself and its destiny. You can come out stronger. Or you will have to give up. In fact, next Wednesday Giuseppe Conte inform Parliament about the decisions with which the country will present itself the next day European council: communications and then vote on motions. the 5 star movement, in fact the political force of the prime minister, shows up at that appointment divided– A large inner sheet has already said that or a pencil stroke will be drawn in green light to Riforma of the Month (reform, no activation) or is ready for barricades in the House. Translated, there is a risk that the executive will blatantly sink and present himself as a lame duck at the Brussels rendezvous, where mythologists are at stake. 209 milliardi from the recovery fund. Which, at least in the Manzonian alluvial form that government rhetoric has accustomed us to since last June, will never really come.
But even here, it’s embroidered to make the inevitable more aesthetically pleasing: they already circulate. lists of managers and super-experts to manage that harvest of money, destined to transform Italy into a Switzerland of the Third Millennium with a stroke of the magic wand. He jokes with the executioner, waiting for him to do his job. And to exorcise fear. Otherwise, why challenge the stigma and ask for cancellation of debt with the ECB?
The next day, then, the wait will not be only for him European council, already born under a bad star by the veto of Hungary and Poland on the Budget that threatens to block the works and that led Angela Merkel to risk the hypothesis of a continuation at 25, a vulnus that would de facto destroy the credibility of the Union. On Thursday, while the leaders will seek an agreement, in Frankfurt one increasingly weakened Christine Lagarde will try to convince the markets about the effectiveness of the new bazooka that he ECB It intends to implement to counteract the risk of a second pandemic recession in the eurozone, pending the massive vaccine. In itself, it’s already a titanic job, given the unrefined firepower thus far and the options that remain available. But that is not enough.
On the same day, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will be accurately called and give the green light touse of vaccines who have submitted an emergency management request. In fact, the driver of all market drivers. Because if the green light is turned on, the price will be towards a normalization of the macro panorama. If, on the contrary, the traffic light remains red or takes time, it flashes yellow, the castle of long bets these days risks of falling. But beware, the opposite reasoning is also valid: if Pfizer and Moderna can start marketing, distribution and administration, the market will also factor more: the slow but gradual withdrawal of the Fed’s anti-pandemic stimulus measures. Also in light of the renewed dialogue between Democrats and Republicans in Congress on the renewal of the federal stimulus package, waiting for Georgia to decide what color the United States Senate will be. On the contrary, a rejection and suspension of the health normalization process will offer hope that the monetary doping regime will continue: what to expect, in short?
The market, paradoxically, is called upon to rationalize its choices in real time, after whole quarters of Pavlovian reactions.
Source: Bloomberg
This graph, for example, shows the reaction of US indices to Pfizer’s announcement to halve available vaccine doses by 2020, due to supply chain problems. Thud. Digested in record time by Asia and almost ignored by Europe yesterday morning: But if it was the FDA who officially dampened hopes and not another skewed announcement, what would happen, in light of America’s worsening numbers? ?
The next day, December 11, the last formal day of European council. And the market reaction, in the last session of the week, to the decisions of the ECB and about vaccines. But with an eye on the Fed’s Monetary Committee that will meet on December 15 and 16.
Basically the perfect Storm. Italy approaches with the soul burdened and irritated by the limited number of Christmas and New Year’s Eve with the risk that a special team of Nocs will break in due to the excess of participants in the dances. So far, however, the ECB has taken all the chestnuts out of the fire in our country. It has calmed the spread, regardless of the government’s political or economic responses to the crisis, regardless of macroeconomic data and public accounts. Regardless of everything: Frankfurt has raised the shield, as a comic book superhero would. And reality hit us, bouncing. But not far enough away to be considered a narrow escape. In the Anglo-Saxon world an attitude is defined as the one that has taken over the country these days last hurray: that is, let’s enjoy the moment, since the showdown is just around the corner.
Italy seems to expect the inescapable with a light-hearted spirit from Simenon, a mix between the resigned who shows fate a mocking smile of defiance and the unconscious that awaits a fine and instead finds itself on the bar of a full trial. rule. Maybe that three-day nightmare, that perfect storm triptych, ends in the best way. Grillini that regroups in the classroom and government safe. ECB that puts its hand in the “toolbox” and amazes everyone. FDA blesses vaccines, a market that approves and consolidates another rally. European Council redeeming the Polish-Hungarian axis. And, perhaps, it also lays the groundwork for easing the conditions for Brexit. It can be, for sure. And it almost certainly will.
But if not, how will Italy wake up the next morning? Under what sky of incessant, torrential rain? What will we do if everything goes wrong? If the spread will rise again, despite the support of the ECB. If it came toextreme relationship caressed in 2011 by Giulio Tremonti, or close the Piazza Affari to avoid collapses, in the face of tension in the banking sector that in some rooms is already palpable today. Almost feverish.
And if by chance, despite the efforts already made and those to come shortly, the ECB does not succeed in stop the rush of a euro already above 1.22 per dollar: on what basis will the post-pandemic restart that vaccines have to pave, factoring ex ante a paralyzed export, as shown in the following graphs?
Source: Bloomberg / Zerohedge
Source: Goldman Sachs / Market / Haver
What will the Italian government do? To respond to the challenge, after months of camouflaging itself among the foliage of the Covid emergency and only dedicating itself to drawing the boundaries and colors of the areas, as in an imaginary risk to health?
And the real problem, paradoxically, is not even in the direct consequences of that diabolical set of facts: the fate of our debt was known, once the psychological threshold of 150% of GDP was broken. Immediately. Restructuring, with forced and conditional reduction of the stock. It’s no coincidence that Mario Draghi in the pits appears to be completing his precompetitive stretch.
The problem is the level of lack of preparation and ignorance of the harshness of reality that crosses and invades the country: when the layoff freeze ends in March – no longer extendable for cash reasons, which at that point will no longer be able to be hidden under the rug of the game round with SURE funds – the country will really understand what the diagnosis of their disease is. And he was able to do it suddenly, one morning, after coffee and before smearing the shaving cream on his face. Realizing, while looking out the window to see what the weather is like, how the Apocalypse came. No need for self-certification.
