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Those who thought that the worst would happen with the first and second waves of Coronavirus were wrong. This not only in terms of infections, which in recent weeks have never dropped below tens of thousands of new cases a day, but also in the very high number of victims that, every day, have always fluctuated around the quota. 800, bordering, some days, even the thousand victims.
Hundreds of deaths a day that now go almost unnoticed by the public opinion, as several commentators have pointed out, as if they were not, in reality, people and human lives lost. However, between October and November, in Italy, they lost their lives to Covid approximately 22,000 people, according to official data, while during the first wave between March, April and May the victims were 30,000.
And looking a bit beyond the simple daily data published by the Ministry of Health based on data sent by individual regions, the brake on the number of deaths still seems far away. According to projections ofInstitute for Health Metrics and Assessment, funded by the Melinda Foundation and Bill Gates, the number of deaths in Italy from Covid-19 could begin to decrease slightly between December 20 and 23. But that doesn’t mean that deaths will stop, as will new infections.
Net of the analysis of the weekly moving averages on deaths, according to the IHME research, at the end of January 2021 Italy could register more 30,000 dead, thus reaching 90,000 people who have died from Covid since the beginning of the emergency. The high number of new infections, from the north to the south of Italy, is also worrying.
Yes, because if in the first wave the pandemic mainly affected the northern regions, this second wave did not spare the Center-South, neither in terms of infections, nor in terms of deaths. And it is also for these reasons that the hypothetical third wave does not seem so far-fetched. Much will depend on the behaviors that are adopted during the Christmas season, the strength of the national health system and hospitals and the tests and the follow-up and follow-up of cases.
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