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After a month of exponential growth, the virus transmission rate in Campania is steadily declining and the region is therefore moving from the red zone to the orange one. The monitoring of Cts, Higher Institute of Health and control room of the Ministry of Health, travels as always with a week delay and the photograph of the data is that of November 29. The minimum interval of two weeks, which took place from the 15th of last month, when the Campania blockade was activated, now allows the modification of the restrictive measures. For the population it means going from a high risk level to an intermediate one (moderate-high), relieving some restrictions.
The order signed by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza takes effect at midnight on Saturday. In the transition from the red to the orange zone, Campania is in the company of Tuscany, Valle D’Aosta and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano, which are now in the same square already occupied by Basilicata, Calabria, Lombardy and Piedmont for which the measurements are confirmed. . Instead, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Marche, Puglia and Umbria fall into an additional level of risk (from orange to yellow) upon reaching Lazio, Liguria, Molise, the autonomous province of Trento, Sardinia, Sicily and Veneto. Therefore, the only region that remains in the red zone is Abruzzo.
Among the main parameters to consider, which determined the color change in Campania, is the Rt infectivity index, which dropped from 1 (on November 22) to 0.74. The incidence per 100 thousand inhabitants also decreased gradually from a value higher than 800, first to 700 and then to 600, marking the general and clear slowdown in new cases in the week of November 22-29. The overall assessment for Campania is of low probability of higher growth and impact for an overall risk rating that is also considered minimal.. Finally, after three weeks of overflow, both the percentage of occupancy of beds in intensive care (29%) and that of ordinary hospitalization (39.97%) fell below the threshold, although in both cases, touching the maximum value set 30 and 40 percent respectively. Also, the data got even better last week.
In light of these risk indicator values, even better than those that put Campania in the yellow zone at the beginning of November (and from which it then went into the red zone in one go), one wonders why It is not returned to the initial frame. Also because compared to the other regions of the yellow zone, Campania does not look bad, on the contrary. Among these, only Sicily, for example, does not register, like Campania, a hospital overload while in general all the others (yellow and orange) are located above the maximum level of occupancy rates for fixed beds except Basilicata (also in the area orange). Among all the regions, only Campania and Basilicata still enjoy an overall risk rating considered low despite the occupied box, while Puglia and Sardinia (which are in the yellow area) are vice versa the only ones with a contradictory high risk rating . with the box occupied. Not to mention the Rt index which, for example, sees Tuscany above the value 1 to mark a still sustained growth of infections. The same happens with Veneto (1.13), Molise (1.38), Lazio (1.04) and Calabria (1.06) while all regions except Sicily, Basilicata and Campania, have a low impact assessment of the epidemic situation in the health services. The alerts in front of the territorial services (tampons, contact tracing, etc.) are finally recorded in Emilia, Lazio, Liguria, which are in the yellow zone, but not in Campania, which is in the orange box. In short, a real puzzle to decipher the color of the risk zone based on the value of the indicators. For Campania, if anything, only the mass value of those currently positive for the virus remains high, placing it in first place among regions against the lowest rate of hospitalization and case fatality. The Government’s line, as is known, is to maintain the division of Italy into zones, even within the framework of the new decree. Therefore, the chromatic differentiation by regions will last at least until Friday, January 15., expiration date of the Dpcm with the aim of placing all regions in the yellow zone from mid-December. If, in addition, Piedmont already announces that it will become a yellow zone in a week and Lombardy does the same, Campania already has all the credentials today to follow them closely.
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