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Wide dissemination of the virus, high average age, many comorbidities, and poor follow-up that the second wave was supposed to slow down. According to scientists, these are the main causes of the thousands of deaths in recent days and of the pandemic in general. With various caveats and distinctions due to an unfinished history, the lack of complete data and also the difference in numbers that are often not comparable.
Covid Italia, newsletter December 4: 24,009 new cases and 814 deaths. The positivity rate rises to 11.3%
FIRST AND SECOND WAVES
According to a calculation by Cesare Cislaghi, epidemiologist and medical statistician at the University of Milan, “the lethality of the coronavirus is 16 deaths per thousand infected eleven days after the diagnosis of its positivity and the number of infected at the end of November is somewhat less “. three and a half million, or 5.6% of the population: a value far removed from herd immunity. If we compare the first wave with the second there are no great differences, while the novelty lies in the ability to identify the positives thanks to the increasing molecular tests that have allowed us to obtain comparable data, whereas at present, with the introduction of other methods, for example, screening with antigen tests may no longer be the case. ”
THE CAUSE
Even Michele Tizzoni, a physicist and researcher at the ISI in Turin, hopes that “in the end the two waves will be comparable. At the end of June the deaths were about 35 thousand, in July and August just under 600 and from September to December about 23 thousand, unfortunately destined to grow for several weeks. In the second wave more has been tracked and the lethality seems less, but the accounts must be done in the end. Lethality and mortality are two concepts that must be handled with care: lethality is calculated with respect to the infected, while mortality is calculated on the total population. The first is the most significant. However, at the moment, there are not all the numbers for a complete comparison between the first and second waves. Of course, Italy is always the same, so some constants can happen. Covid, for example, continues to kill elderly people who would have lived several more years. The main causes are in the combination of the spread of the virus and the average age of the population.
COMPARISON WITH A FOREIGNER
In other countries, the fundamental factors seem the same, although much remains to be discovered for the scientific community. “A recent study in Nature – explains Tizzoni – has established that the death rate compared to infected people is the best measure for comparisons. By this criterion, the Western world is more or less on the same level. Therefore, as always, it is important to decide what action to take and whether you have comparable data and time periods. ‘ A quick tour of the world, according to scientists, leads one to understand that South America pays for the shortage of health care, Africa benefits from a young demographic, as does the United States, which suffers from an uncontrolled spread of the virus in certain areas. while Europe suffers in particular from the average age of its inhabitants. However, it is the combination with the high diffusion that is lethal: “Japan is as old as Italy, but it is better because it is less infected.”
TRACKING
And here we come to the infamous tampons. Germany and France, more than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, have shown that they know how to track the population over time. «In the second wave – continues Tizzoni – the difference was made by those who managed to protect the elderly. Some countries have interrupted the contagion between young and old, while in Italy, where among other things there is a particular family structure, this has happened less.
FRAGILE PEOPLE
“The virus does not forgive weaknesses – explains Roberto Bernabei, professor of Geriatrics at the Catholic University of Rome – whether it is young people with pathologies, obese, heart patients and especially the elderly. In fact, between the first and second waves, the average age of the deceased is still 80 years, the majority with various previous pathologies. This is undoubtedly an aspect to take into account in an investigation into the reasons for the many deaths, but scientists will wonder for years and whoever discovers them all deserves the Nobel Prize in Medicine. The only certain fact is that many older people die and this cannot be without consequences. Unfortunately we are a country where when an imbalance occurs, from the heat of summer to the cold of winter, from the flu to the Covid, it is the most fragile to lose. Weak categories must be protected with prevention and testing. A census is necessary to identify those most in need, which combined with the strengthening of the territorial assistance system avoids congestion in hospitals.
Last updated: 22:17
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