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There are 23,225 infections recorded today in 226,729 swabs tested (here the newsletter). Yesterday there were 20,709 new cases from more than 207,000 tests. The regions with the most infections are Lombardy (+3,751), Veneto (+3,581) and Campania (+2,295). In the hours that the government works in the new Dpcm and approved the decree-law of December 2 n. 158 which describes the framework of the measures at Christmas and, in particular, of the limitations to travel, we have witnessed a decrease in new cases of infection for a few days. Today the proportion of positives in relation to tampons is 10.2% (yesterday it was 9.9%).
Analysis of the data from today’s coronavirus bulletin
This is an important indicator because it tells us if we are doing enough testing and how effective our traceability is (the lower the ratio, the fewer cases escape the surveillance center). At the end of September, the proportion of positive swabs was around 2% and then jumped above 17% in early November.
- December 3 10.2%
- December 2 9.99%
- December 1 10.6%
- November 30 12.5%
- November 29 11.7%
- November 28 11.7%
- November 27 12.7%
- November 26 12.5%
- November 25 11.2%
- November 24 12.3%
- November 23 15.3%
- 22 November 15%
- November 21 14.6%
- November 20 15.6%
- November 19 14.4%
- November 18 14.8%
- November 17 15.4%
- November 16 17.9%
- November 15 17.4%
- November 14 16.3%
- November 13 16%
- November 12 16.2%
- November 11 14.6%
- November 10 16.1%
- November 9, 17.1%
Data on deaths and hospital admissions
Unfortunately, the number of victims is very high, terrifying: today 993 – never so many since the beginning of the epidemic – against the +684 deaths yesterday for a total of 58,138 victims since the first months of 2020. 347 of today’s victims They are registered in Lombardy.
Deaths between Monday and Thursday:
- this week: 3,134
- last week: 3,027
- two weeks ago: 2,641
- three weeks ago: 2,195
- four weeks ago: 1,366
Change from the average of the last four weeks
When will the number of deaths in Italy start to decrease?
“I number of deaths “for Covid-19, which remain high despite the improvement in other data on the progress of the epidemic, “are dramatic” and are the “that hurt the most, that grip our conscience and our sensitivity. The parameter of the number of deaths is the last” . to decrease “, but” I think we can see a substantial reduction from the next 10 days. “The forecast is from Franco Locatelli, president of the Higher Council of Health (Css), who spoke with ‘Gora your Rai3.
The data on deaths in Italy has not been overestimated, several times the ISS has clearly explained this; in fact, it is likely that they were underestimated in the months of March and April. During that time, many patients died without being examined and therefore their information was not entered into the Surveillance System. The estimate made in the joint ISS-Istat report on excess mortality is that in the months of March and April, deaths directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 are approximately double those measured in the Surveillance System. This underestimation of deaths, however, was greatly reduced and almost dropped to zero from May to late summer.
Finally, beginning with today’s newsletter, data on intensive care admissions is provided. An order that analysts and experts have been making for a long time. There are 3,597 patients in intensive care (-19, yesterday were 3,616): daily admissions in the last 24 hours are 217. Those hospitalized with symptoms, however, are 31,772 (-682, yesterday 32,454). Those healed and discharged are in total 846,809 (+23,474, yesterday they were 823,335). There are still 724,613 patients in isolation, while those currently positive have reached 759,982.
Finally, starting with today’s newsletter, data on intensive care admissions is provided. A request that analysts and experts have been making for a long time. Good pic.twitter.com/TU47LOTnWr
– Lorenzo Pregliasco (@lorepregliasco) December 3, 2020
The numbers are falling and the danger of a third wave
The figures continue to be high and, although in recent days we have witnessed a decrease in new cases of contagion and some fundamental indicators have improved in monitoring the epidemic (such as intensive care), the worst has not been left behind and a The “relaxation effect” “in the next Christmas holidays could plunge us back into the nightmare of the first months of 2021. The government’s goal is to bend the contagion curve without reaching a generalized blockade. That is why the restrictions on Christmas and New Years will be more strict.
Cases between Monday and Thursday
- this week: 79,661
- last week: 101,018
- two weeks ago: 130,003
- three weeks ago: 131,308
- four weeks ago: 115,552
Change from the average of the last four weeks:
Positivity rate (swabs performed) between Monday and Thursday
- this week: 10.7%
- last week: 12.6%
- two weeks ago: 15.4%
- three weeks ago: 15.9%
- four weeks ago: 15.4%
What does the data tell us about the epidemic? How are you doing in Italy? the surveillance The independent Gimbe Foundation confirms in the week 25 November-1 December, compared to the previous one, a decrease in new cases (165,879 vs 216,950), compared to a decrease in proven cases (672,794 vs 778,765) and a reduction in the positive / proven case relationship (24.7% vs 27.9%). Currently positive cases decreased by 2.3% (779,945 vs 798,386) and, in the hospital setting, both hospitalizations with symptoms (32,811 vs 34,577) and in intensive care (3,663 vs 3,816) decreased; deaths continue to rise (5,055 versus 4,842). In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
- Deaths: 5,055 (+ 9.9%)
- Intensive care: -153 (-4%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: -1,766 (-5.1%)
- New cases: 165,879 (+ 11.4%)
- Positive cases currently: -18,441 (-2.3%)
- Proven cases -105.971 (-13.6%)
- Total mattresses: -85,654 (-5.8%)
“The reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (11.4% vs 17.5%), in the number of new cases per week (165,879 vs 216,950) and, to a lesser extent, is confirmed – says Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation, of the positive ratio / cases analyzed (24.7% vs 27.9%) compared to a significant reduction in the cases analyzed (-13.6%) ».
If, therefore, the decline in new cases is attributable on the one hand to the effect of the measures introduced, on the other hand it is affected by the inexplicable reduction of almost 106 thousand proven cases. “The containment measures – continues Cartabellotta – are also reflected in the curves of currently positive, hospitalizations and intensive care, which seem to have passed the peak and started the downward phase, while the death curve continues to rise.”
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