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CORONAVIRUS: LOMBARDY returns to ORANGE, but according to the EXPERTS the INFECTIONS CURVE can RETURN. Here because
ORANGE region of Lombardy, but the risk of the EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CURVE rising againAn unheard-of crowd on the streets of Milan for the first day since ORANGE ZONE. The Region, after being declared RED AREASince Sunday, November 29, it has been downgraded to the orange zone. This means that the measures have been relaxed and there is no more talk about a real lock like the last weeks. In short, shops reopen, all high school students return to the classroom, you can move without self-certification on your own Common 5 to 22. The color change is the result of an improvement in the data that acts as a thermometer for the epidemic.
But authorities and experts repeat that the partial reopening should not be seen as a free whole. “We have already seen a first wave, we are in the middle of the second, we must avoid the third,” he sums up. Giovanni corrao, professor of medical statistics at the University of Bicocca. Together with his collaborators, he monitors the progress of infections and tries to predict their trends. “The spread of the virus depends directly on the behavior of each one of us. We have to see what changes with this color change, which I personally would have prevented. If in general we managed to avoid social contacts as much as possible, we will not face a third wave. But the rapid rotation of the new measures does not give us a feeling of something positive.
According to the graphs of I runBy maintaining the red zone rules around Christmas, the situation in the region would return to the levels of late May-early June. “But with the transition to orange I think rt, the contagion rate which is now around 1 or even lower, will probably go up. Imagine that it goes back to 1.2, already at the end of December the numbers could grow “. Only with vaccination will we have weapons to fight the virus. “Who should be protected first? We need to understand which people are most at risk. There are objective tools to identify who to start with, name by name and not generically. We studied a specific algorithm, we proposed it to the Ministry of Health “, Corrao concludes.
Here is Prof. Corrao’s GRAPH on INFECTIONS in Lombardy
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