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The British government and the European Commission continue to work on the file Brexi, with the intention of completing the process of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union in accordance with the result of the 2016 referendum.
Exactly one month before the end of the year – as agreed by the parties, December 31 is the deadline for reaching an agreement – the possible outcomes of the negotiations on the London-Brussels axis remain two– A clear and precise definition of post-Brexit trade relations or a disorderly exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (no deal).
It is still difficult to speculate which direction the negotiations will take. Three rocks in fact, they continue to keep the tension high between the parties, thus preventing them from avoiding the result that most people do not like: lack of agreement.
Three stumbling blocks slow down Brexit negotiations
In four years of negotiations there were many knots that led the two sides to fight vigorously. These include the backstop, a solution developed by the European Commission to prevent the return of a rigid border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
A history of ups and downs, that of the negotiations between London and Brussels, although the latter were largely predominant, was also seen the constant postponements and the often hostile words that Downing Street and the European Commission have exchanged since 2016.
The final race, now, sees the parties despise once more: Fishing rights, competition and governance are at stake, open questions whose resolution -or not- will define the commercial and institutional relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union from next year.
1. Fishing rights
Approximately thirty days after the end of the transition period, the focus is mainly on fishing rights. According to the regulations currently in force in the European Union, fishing boats have access to the waters of other EU countries except for the twelve miles close to the coasts.
Going forward, and by future we mean the post-Brexit phase, when the UK has completed the Brussels divorce proceedings, the British government would like to discuss annually the quotas of European fishing vessels in the 200 mile British Exclusive Zone.
Though London’s determination is being fulfilled strong resistance from Brussels, with the leaders of the European Commission who, fearing a strong impact on European fleets, would like to maintain current conditions.
An easy obstacle to overcome? It is possible, but there is a but. Fishing has a negligible impact on the two economies, which could lead observers to bet on reaching a compromise before the gong. On the other hand, the British Government will try to turn the dispute over fishing rights into a negotiating advantage.
2. Competition
But there is also the overheating of the London-Brussels axis the problem of competition between the UK and the European Union in the post-Brexit season. The European Commission, which is also keen to offer a duty-free trade deal, wants to prevent the British from competing unfairly after a divorce.
Pollution is one of the highlights, which London could use to its advantage given the strict standards imposed on European companies. For this, the European Union would like the UK to continue to play by the same rules, while providing an evolutionary clause that updates the minimum standards as time goes on.
In the same cauldron too the issue of state aid, with London and Brussels deciding to consult periodically on national business subsidy projects (but there is the specter of customs duties if the tones were to rise in the future).
3. Governance
For the end, governance. And, more precisely, the mechanisms to use in case of disputes. For the European Union it is in fact essential that the agreement between the parties is legally protected, in order to protect itself in case of unfair or improper conduct on the part of the United Kingdom.
In this sense, London and Brussels would be thinking about the establishment of a arbitral tribunal for violations of the agreement, with the European Union that would be forced to give up an active role of the Court of Justice of the European Communities.
Downing Street, in fact, is intended to protect National sovereignty so painstakingly conquered with the 2016 referendum: At this point, the British have no intention of yielding a step.
