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“The numbers tell us that there is a deceleration of the curves, but not a decrease in the cases. Let’s say the numbers increase with less speed. Important, but not enough. We will have to get used to flexible closures, adapted to the trend ofepidemic. So, in certain territories and for limited periods of time. In this sense, the 21-parameter system is excellent, because it adapts to the trend of the epidemic.
Professor Ranieri War is the deputy director of theWorld Health Organization. Given the stabilization of the increase in new cases positive and with a slowdown in hospitalizations, it invites us to remain calm and rational. Because the journey to the end of the most painful phase of the pandemic is not over.
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When can we start talking about a decrease in new cases? Should we make sure that fewer and fewer new beds are occupied? Ten days ago they fluctuated between 150 and 200 every 24 hours only in intensive care, this weekend instead they were much less (43 yesterday, 10 Saturday and 36 Friday).
“Before reaching a real decrease in new positive cases, it will take a few more days. In admissions, the result is promising. But there is also a decrease in what we can define as “social shelters”, there is greater attention to who to hospitalize and greater attention of territorial medicine in the diagnosis and follow-up of the sick, attending them at home. Gravity is usually seen on the first impact, then decreases. The development that we are witnessing was expected, as well as, unfortunately, in the number of deaths that will be high for a few more days.
It’s a simplification that scientists don’t like, but do you think we’ll see the peak soon?
Certainly, because we will also have the effects of the last Dpcm, with stricter measures and mini-closures in some regions ”.
There is an encouraging figure: also in other European countries such as France, Spain and the United Kingdom, where in September and October the virus ran more than in Italy, with containment measures they reduced the impact. The epidemic is not invincible.
«This is now known. Containment measures that prevent meetings. I would like to add: unfortunately. If each of us had a personal discipline in respecting precautions such as masks, distancing and hand hygiene, there would be no need for prohibitions ”.
Waiting for the effect of the vaccines that will not be, even in the best of hypotheses, before spring, should we wait for “bellows” closures, decided for short periods and limited territories, every time the epidemic starts again ?
«Once again: the monitoring system of the 21 established indicators works well, it is robust, it is always better fed by the Regions. According to that there are closings in phases and in geographical sectors. What matters at this time is not to say: “let’s close everything.” It would not be justified or even sustainable, all measures must be adapted territorially and during the necessary period of time. Having this system, perhaps enriching it rather than impoverishing it, helps us move forward and decide based on what the evidence of the numbers gives us. Both when you close and when you reopen. Until spring, the ‘all free or all closed’ model no longer makes sense. ‘
In the most recent phase of the epidemic, large cities have a lower incidence than provinces.
“Large urban areas are subject to stricter restrictions and controls than surrounding areas, where the movement of vehicles and people is less monitored. We must also understand the importance of travel.
Why does the virus circulate much less in Asian countries (Southeast Asia and the Far East), not just China? Nations like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand or Singapore, what have they done better than Europe?
“First of all: the virus continues to circulate there as well, although to a much lesser extent. Surely in those countries there is an immediate respect of the population for the rules indicated by the governments, the use of the mask was a habit even before the pandemic, they also have a sociality very different from the European one. And they monitor better because, unlike in Europe, they do not have an obsessive respect for privacy even in times of emergency. Right or wrong, it’s different in Europe.
What Christmas are you waiting for?
«In the family, sober and calm. I hope that now everyone understands that the elderly members of the family must be protected.
Covid Italia, today’s newsletter November 22: new infections (28,337) and deaths (562) in decline, proportion of positive swabs at 15%
28,337 new cases of Covid have been identified in Italy in the last 24 hours, more than 6 thousand less than yesterday, which brings the total number of people infected since the start of the emergency to 1,408,868. The increase in victims also decreased, 562 in one day while yesterday they were 692, for a total of 49,823.
Last update: November 23 at 09:47
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