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From the weekly report on monitoring the coronavirus data, carried out by the Higher Institute of Health, referring to the period November 9-15 (with data updated to November 18), a positive element emerges: the differentiation of measures is giving the first effects. In the period from October 28 to November 10, 2020, the transmission index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases is equal to 1.18.
Mean Rt values between 1 and 1.25 are found in most Italian / PA regions; As of this week, even in some Regions / PA, the estimated value of Rt is less than 1: the most virtuous Lazio, Liguria, Sardinia (0.9 and 0.92, 0.84 respectively). While the Regions with the highest RT are Basilicata with 1.54 and Tuscany with 1.44.
But in the period considered, almost all the Regions remain classified as “at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the area or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks.”
It is about 17 Autonomous Regions / Provinces considered high risk. Of these, 2 are considered high risk as a precaution, because the available data is not reliable enough: we are talking about Calabria and Umbria. Of these 17, 11 were classified as high risk (or equivalent to high risk) for 3 or more consecutive weeks, and in this case specific measures are taken to be adopted at the provincial and regional level based on the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period on October 12. This category includes: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, PA Bolzano, Sicily, Tuscany, Umbria and Valle d’Aosta.
And again, of the 17 high-risk Regions / PAs (or equivalent), 3 have a calculated transmissibility as of November 4 compatible with a transmission scenario 3 (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Tuscany); 9 with a type 2 scenario (Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, PA Bolzano, Puglia, Sicily, Umbria, Valle d’Aosta); and the remaining 5 with a type 1 scenario (Pa Trento, Calabria, Lazio, Liguria, Sardinia).
While the rest of the Autonomous Regions / Provinces are classified as moderate risk: 3 with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month. For these, the ISS has invited the health authorities to “evaluate the possible adoption of new mitigation measures”: these are Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Molise and Veneto. Friuli-Venezia Giulia is currently in the orange zone, while Molise and Veneto are in the yellow zone.
The RT region by region
Abruzzo: 1.29
Basilicata: 1.54
Calabria: 1.09
Campania: 1.13
Emilia_Romagna: 1.2
Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 1.29
Straight: 0.9
Liguria: 0.92
Lombardy: 1.25
March: 1.27
Molise: 1.05
Piedmont: 1.1
PA Bolzano: 1.22
PA Trento: 1.07
Apulia: 1.24
Sardinia: 0.84
Sicily: 1.13
Tuscany: 1.44
Umbria: 1.09
Aosta Valley: 1.23
Veneto: 1.23
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