Covid, Rt Italia falls to 1.18

Published on: 11/20/2020 3:09 PM

“The value of RT at the national level falls to 1.18”. This is highlighted by the draft of the weekly monitoring report on the coronavirus emergency in Italy prepared by the Higher Institute of Health (Iss) -Ministry of Health and from whichAdnkronos Health is in possession. “There are average values ​​of Rt between 1 and 1.25 in most of the Regions and autonomous provinces – specifies the report – as of this week in some Regions the estimated value of Rt is less than 1”. In detail, the Rt index is less than 1 in Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Molise and Sardinia.

“There is a reduction in the transmissibility” of Covid-19 compared to the previous week, which suggests an initial effect of the mitigation measures introduced at the national and regional level since October 14. However, given that the transmissibility In much of the territory there is still an Rt index above 1 and implies an increase in new cases, this trend should not lead to a relaxation of measures or a decrease in attention to behavior ”, reads the draft of the monitoring report.

“There are 18 Regions that as of November 17 had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area. If current transferability is maintained, almost all autonomous regions and provinces have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds within the next month ”, highlights the draft document.

Friuli Venezia Giulia, Molise and Veneto are the “three regions currently at moderate risk” that show, however, “a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month. Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to classification of high risk, does recommend to the health authorities of the 3 Regions / PA to evaluate the possible adoption of new mitigation measures “. Currently the Fvg is in the orange zone, in the Covid risk classification according to the 21 monitoring parameters, while Molise and Veneto are in the yellow zone.

The ISS and the Ministry of Health also report that “multiple alerts related to the resilience of local health services have been reported in almost all regions and autonomous provinces. In general, it is critical to maintain the high quality of the data reported to the system surveillance, integrated both by timing (late notification of cases notified to the surveillance system on aggregate data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and by integrity “.

“The epidemiological data analyzed correspond to the week of November 9-15, which is currently the last consolidated data available. In itself, this is a confirmation of the generalized criticality of the resilience spread throughout the national territory and due to the severity of the epidemiological situation – the technicians comment – As a consequence, this can lead to an underestimation of the speed and incidence of transmission “.