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COVID-19, in an Italy divided into red zone, orange zone and yellow zone with different levels of blocking, the guard must not be lowered at all: almost all Regions are still classified as high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory or moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next few weeks. In particular, 17 regions are classified as high risk of SarsCov2 transmission. This was revealed in the draft of the weekly follow-up issued by Iss-Ministry of Health.
The reduction in the Rt index suggests “an initial effect of the mitigation measures introduced at the national and regional level as of October 14, 2020.” However, given that transmissibility in most of the territory is still maintained with an Rt above 1 and implies an increase in new cases, “this trend should not lead to a relaxation of measures or a decrease in care to behavior “.
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LThe epidemic in Italy “remains at critical levels both because the incidence of new diagnoses remains very high and continues to increase, and because of its severity with a significant impact on welfare services.” In most of the national territory, the transferability is compatible with scenario 2 with some Regions where the transmission speed continues to be compatible with scenario 3.
Admissions at risk
As of November 17, 18 regions had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area. If current transmissibility is maintained, almost all regions have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in a month. The continuous increase in people with Covid-19 admitted to hospitals implies an inevitable erosion of resources for the care of patients with other diseases.
Index
The transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases is equal to 1.18. Mean Rt values between 1 and 1.25 are found in most Italian / PA regions; Starting this week in some Regions the estimated value of Rt is less than 1.
Three regions in equilibrium
Three Regions are at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month. Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high risk classification “it is recommended that the health authorities of the 3 Regions with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month evaluate the possible adoption of new mitigation measures” .
This week there is a new increase in cases that brings the incidence in the last 14 days to 732.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 10/26 / 2020-08 / 11/2020 (vs 648.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in period 26 / 10 / 2020-08 / 11/2020). The increase in cases is widespread in almost the entire country.
And the Basilicata the Region with the estimate of the Rt point calculated as of November 4, the highest, equal to 1.46. They are followed by Abruzzo (Rt at 1.32), Toscana (1.31) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (1.27). The lowest Rt is recorded in Sardinia (0.79) and Lazio (0.82).
Last updated: 16:02
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