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An Italian study that has just been published highlights what each of us has always suspected within ourselves: the circulation of Coronavirus In Italy it already exists, at least, since September 2019. The answer is given by scholars and researchers because the typical antibodies of the immune response to Covid-19 were already found in those months.
“To test the hypothesis of the early circulation of the virus in Italy, we studied the frequency, timing and geographical distribution of exposure to Sars-Cov-2 in a series of 959 asymptomatic individuals, using neutralizing and binding antibodies to Sars-Cov . -2 owners in the plasma sample reservoir“says a small excerpt from the research. To find out more, we interviewed one of the authors of the study, Prof. Emanuele Montomoli, Professor of Public Health and President and founder of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Siena.
Professor Montomoli, why did we not notice the presence of the virus as early as September 2019?
“There are two hypothesis: A virus, when it begins to circulate, has a plateau period. Then the boxes start to grow and a bell-like peak forms where there is a linear base that then starts to grow, then there is a peak and then it decreases. The hypothesis is that in November / December 2019 there were few cases that did not make the headlines because they did not clog hospitals and emergency rooms. In January it began to be broadcast more prominently and in February / March there was a peak. The first hypothesis is that, in the beginning, there were not enough cases to trigger the epidemic.
And the second hypothesis?
“No one ever says it: coronaviruses don’t like cold. Unlike the flu that lives at 37 degrees in the host and survives 4 degrees in the environment, coronaviruses live at 37 degrees in the host and survive in the environment at a moderate temperature of around 20 degrees. Too cold bothers you as much as too hot. The winter season was not the best in which the virus could be transmitted. So probably in winter the virus didn’t spread as expected. “
So Covid doesn’t like the cold? It goes against the trend of what is being said …
“He does not like the cold as he does not like excessive heat, he prefers the mild season.”
If we had a very cold winter, would the virus circulate less?
“Yes, it could circulate less and broadcast less frequently, but there are two variables That should be taken into account: the first is that less Sars-Cov-2 can be transmitted but cold-loving influences increase. Second, in winter with the cold, people stay together indoors instead of in summer when you are more outdoors. Therefore, winter transmission is disadvantageous from the ecological point of view but favorable from the point of view of habits ”.
What is your study about?
“The sera we analyzed were collected from July 2019: in July and August all were negative, at the end of September there were only two positive people, while as of October the numbers are increased more and more. From October onwards, there are groups of subjects who have antibodies that bind to the Sars-Cov-2 virus. And these stories also add to the epidemiological hypothesis. ”
And what would it be?
“Traces of Coronavirus were found in sewage from Lombardy in December, in Paris a person died of pneumonia between November and December and subsequently the Sars-Cov-2 virus was found in their lungs. head to the bull: this means that, already in that period, the virus circulated in Europe. This is the epidemiological hypothesis and the result is that, when looking for antibodies, they are found in a certain percentage that increases in the months of December, January, February while it was completely absent in the previous months of July, August and September ”.
Why didn’t the virus initially cause symptoms?
“This epidemic is like a iceberg: all the underwater part is the asymptomatic part. The iceberg was formed in the asymptomatic, until it grew in this way no one could say that there was a new virus. When, in the mass of asymptomatic patients, the first cases began to appear, then the first tip of the iceberg, the first diagnoses began. But such a mass had already formed that it transmitted the infection. “
What is the difference from last year?
“The diagnoses were made only to those who ended up in the hospital with symptoms. In fact, the death rate was said to be monstrous, but only because tampons to the asymptomatic. That is why before you could only see the tip of the iceberg while now you can see everything, even what is under water ”.
Why did no one die at the beginning of the pandemic?
“I’m going to give you an example: if in October of last year there could have been a few thousand cases and only a small part ended up in the hospital and died pneumonia atypical, he was diagnosed as such. This year the virus is known, however, if I have millions of cases and a few hundred end up in hospitals, if a hundred of them die and I look for Sars-Cov-2, I find it in all of them. In practice, now I am going to look for what was not previously sought ”.
Why did you start claiming victims in late February 2020?
“Because there were already so many cases, the virus was already known. It is not even excluded, but it must be shown, that something really happened in the Wuhan market in December 2019: perhaps the virus has known a mutation that it may have made it more infectious and virulent cannot be ruled out. Molecular epidemiologists will tell us what happened. It would be interesting to analyze a virus isolated from October / November 2019 and compare the genetic sequence with that of January and with that of today. We already have evidence that the current genetic sequence is somewhat different since January. Perhaps it had also changed compared to September ”.
Where did it finally originate? Is China no longer the site of the spill?
“I can’t say, but with the scientific data that we have available at the moment no one can say exactly. It would take a report of a virus isolated from a previous patient compared to what is said to be case zero, to really understand whether the virus was generated in China or if in China it only suffered a mutation that made it more virulent and bad. Our study did not have this objective: it wanted to open a door to this scenario and verify that a part of the Italian population had antibodies against the coronavirus before circulating. They were found, the next question is: how do they get them? The Chinese first isolated it but it is not said that this virus did not circulate before. Somehow it must be generated. But we are sure that it is actually created in the market of Wuhan? Our study opens a door to this question. “
To conclude, do we know to date who brought the Coronavirus to Italy?
“Absolutely not, but not only do we not know this but also who brought it to China.”
