Red zone, confrontation between the government and the regions in 21 parameters: that is the risk

Twenty-one parameters to decide which ones regions “close” with stricter measures (red band), as with the bass but less intrusive (orange band), to whom to reserve the provisions that are valid for the entire country (yellow band) where now there are only Lazio, Veneto, Molise, Sardinia and the autonomous province of Trento).

The tirade

in a reserved document The CTS asked to streamline the system, because the data flow thus articulated forces the control room formed by the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health and representatives of the Regions to have updated figures the previous week. And also the Regions, in the afternoon meeting with the government, today they will ask to limit the parameters to 5: positive / swab ratio, Rt (transmission rate), bed occupancy rate in intensive care and medical area (other departments besides resuscitation where there are patients COVID-19), number and types of operators dedicated to tracking the count. The Regions also request that for asymptomatic patients the response of the buffer antigenic, given the long time of molecular swabs that should be reserved only for those who need to be treated because they have symptoms.

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The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, has already announced that the system of 21 indicators (in force until December 3 regarding the subdivision into bands if there are no new Dpcm to expand it) continues to be the most reliable.

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The indicators

But what are these 21 indicators? We often speak of RT, the transmission index that measures the speed of infection, the validity of which has recently been questioned by some experts in this phase of the pandemic: however, if it remains below 1.25, a Region cannot end on an orange or red face; Much attention is paid to the percentage of occupied beds (it should not exceed 30% in intensive care, 40% in the medical area). According to Agenas, there are already 17 autonomous regions or provinces that have an occupation above the limits of intensive care. But the system is much more complex. In fact, the 21 indicators are divided into three sectors as indicated in the Ministerial Decree of April 30: 1. monitoring capacity; 2. ability to diagnose, investigate and manage; 3. transmissibility of infections and maintenance of health services.

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Some examples: the first sector includes the number of symptomatic cases reported to the surveillance system and the number reported per month with a history of hospitalization in which the date of admission is specified in relation to the total number of cases with a history of hospitalization reported to the surveillance system in the same period. It applies both to the medical area and to intensive care. In this sector, in fact, with 6 indicators, an accurate picture of the progress of the epidemic is taken. In the second, six other indicators, among other things, are the percentage of positive swabs and the time that elapses between the date of onset of symptoms and the date of diagnosis. Finally, the third also analyzes the hospital network overload, not only at the moment but also as a forecast. According to the RT, a region ends in scenario 3 or 4, if the final judgment on the 21 indicators is high risk, here is the orange or red band.

Red zone: Puglia, Liguria and Basilicata regions towards the strait

Which regions are at risk of more stringent measures being taken? The control room meets tomorrow, it should be understood if Puglia can finish in the red band, although Governor Emiliano played beforehand by independently closing two provinces in trouble (Foggia and Bat); Basilicata is in a delicate situation; Liguria is also under observation, but Toti is confident. Lazio and Veneto, according to known data, should remain in the yellow band.

Last updated: 12:10


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