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The trend of new cases of coronavirus continues to grow, but the rate of increase of positives is slowed down. In other words, the president of Gimbe explains Nino Cartabellotta, the contagion “is like un’automobile that, after having accelerated the race for weeks (percentage increase in cases), now travel to one very high speed mom constant (number of cases per week), despite having reduced the acceleration ”. The follow-up of the foundation is confirmed in the week. November 11-17, compared to the previous one, a stabilization in the increase in the trend of new cases: in the last 7 days there have been 242,609 new infections, compared to 235,634 in the period 4-10 November. At the same time, however, in the last week dead They were 4,134, with an increase of 41.7%. In the hospital setting, the number of hospitalized patients and 3,612 intensive care patients rose to 33,074 with saturation thresholds exceeded in 15 and 17 Regions, respectively. In this scenario, Cartabellotta always explains, “taking into account the current level of overload hospitals and intensive care and the exponential growth of deaths, propose the hypothesis of a relaxation of the measures in order to save Christmas, you probably have very serious consequences, both in terms of people’s health and human lives“.
The independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation reports even slight in the week of November 11-17 reduction Gods proven cases (854,626 vs 872,026) and a slight increase of the positive proportion / proven cases (28.4% vs 27%). They grow by 24.4% i almost currently positive (733,810 vs 590,110). “To correctly interpret the terms’Slow down‘,’ cooling ‘,’braking‘which in the last week have also invaded institutional communication – explains Cartabellotta – it is essential to underline clear difference between the percentage increase in new cases and yours increase in absolute terms. Otherwise, we end ‘torture the numbers until they confess’, highlighting timid improvements to limit restrictions and legitimize the reopening“In fact, if in the last week there is a further reduction in the percentage of increase of new cases (from 31% to 24.4%), however, have increased by 242,609 compared to the previous week. If on the one hand in all regions, except in Apulia, the percentage of increase in cases is reduced, on the other hand, currently positive cases increase everywhere except in Aosta Valley.
Cartabellotta highlights how the restrictions introduced so far have not been “‘flattened‘the contagion curve that Keep improving, although with Reduced speedThe reduction in the percentage increase can also be seen in the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms and, to a lesser extent, in intensive therapy: “However – Gimbe’s presidents point out – without knowing the inflows and outflows of patients, it cannot be excluded that these data are influenced bysaturation effect of beds that unfortunately in intensive care cause an increase of lethality“In any case, the occupancy threshold of the 40% defined by the Ministry of Health for Covid patients in medical departments it was exceeded in 15 Regions and that of 30% in intensive therapy at 17. If the respective national averages have reached 51% and 42%, in several Regions the values are much higher and some hospitals I’m in Exhausted. Indeed. Cartabellotta recalls: “Covid patients are progressively”cannibalize‘ I Beds from other departments limiting the ability to care for patients with other pathologies ”.
“The rise of deceased – Explain Renata gili, Head of Research in Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – maintains a exponential trend, registering a + 41.7% compared to the previous week. This increase is intended to to increase in the coming weeks, because the effect of restrictive measures first reduces contagion rates (Rt, percentage increase in cases), then hospitalizations and intensive care, and only recently the deaths“.” While the slowdowns of the last week undoubtedly represent a positive sign – Cartabellotta concludes – on the other hand, it is essential to point out that the curves of currently positive cases, hospitalizations, intensive care and, above all, deaths continue to increase ”. For this reason, consider easing restrictions Christmas “You probably have very high price“.
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