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R and t. Two letters together explain a lot, if not all, how much damage a pandemic can cause (here’s the explanation of what this index is). That is why it is much more than symbolic that Milan, the epicenter of the second wave, has gravitated around 1. For now it is a waterline. That is not enough But it helps.
The benchmark indicator
The last R
The risk bands
In this scenario, the debate on the rainbow of colors will come to life today, with the meeting between Governor Attilio Fontana and the mayors. “If the numbers continue to be positive, from 27 we can ask to be transferred to the orange zone (this is what would change), but the mistake we can make is that once the restrictions are overcome, we can start living as if the virus would have disappeared, “Fontana said. On the table he will put the tables with the R
But the most critical aspect continues to be the saturation level of the hospitals, with a flow between entrances and exits complicated in recent days due to the fact that discharges tend to be slower, as more critical cases are consequential on average, including children late arrival ER in early November.
Therefore, if the decrease in R
Ambulances and shelters
The first places that act as a thermometer of the epidemic are the emergency rooms. And, even earlier, the Areu plant (118). Until about ten days ago, the Milan operations center “opened” more than 2,000 requests for help (with peaks of 2,300 / 2,400 per day), with an exponential increase in calls for Covid symptoms. As the days passed, the ambulance missions were reduced to 1,500. It means that the wave of new infections is slowing down. And it is a key aspect: if hospitals have problems, to allow the health system to treat everyone, it is essential to reduce the number of new patients.
The estimates reserved in the hands of the Pirellone expected to reach 10,000 hospitalizations in the wards and 1,400 / 1,500 in intensive care, a kind of point of no return. To date, the system records a bed occupancy of around 70%. It will increase a bit more, but the dynamics of the epidemic at the moment looks like this: the “container” (the health system) is almost full, but there is a well-founded hope that the “tap” (the flow of new patients) it is decreasing . Specifically in Milan, the pressure on emergencies has already dropped: in a week the decline in hospitalizations could begin -explains Covid resuscitation coordinator Antonio Pesenti-. Even in intensive care we could reach the plateau between 1,000 and 1,100 occupied places ”.
It is the phase to be consolidated, so that the system does not suffer. Demicheli again: “We can say that things improve when hospitalizations drop significantly. At the moment they are growing less, but they continue to grow. As happened yesterday, with 9 new patients in intensive care and 172 in the other departments. And with a more stable scenario also in the axis of the Fair, with 60 occupied beds and a kind of balance (re) found between supply and demand for beds, so much so that Humanitas and Gruppo San Donato, ready to enter for days They keep their waiters.
This is how the objective is materialized: to encourage the current slowdown that is observed in hospital emergencies and in R
November 19, 2020 | 08:16
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