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Less high peak in intensive care
Macron had made a prediction that fortunately turned out to be wrong. “Whatever we do – Macron said at the end of October – we will have 9 thousand people in intensive care by mid-November.” The screening was carried out by the Pasteur Institute. Yesterday, November 16, there were 4,900 Covid patients in intensive care. Another encouraging fact: if the slowdown and then the decrease in hospitalizations are confirmed, this time the peak will be lower than that of the first wave when up to 7,000 patients in resuscitation were reached. Situation due to the new health protocols that, between the administration of certain drugs and the oxygenation techniques, often manage to avoid the aggravation of the patient.
Mortality decreases
The same explanations apply to the level of mortality in the comparison between the first and second waves. In spring there were days when the daily deaths exceeded a thousand. It did not happen this time, where the average is between 300 and 500 deaths a day, to which must be added the data from the nursing homes reported every four days. In absolute figures, between March and the end of May, the deaths from Covid in France were almost 30 thousand. Between the end of September and mid-November, 15 thousand Covid deaths are registered.
Hospitals continue to suffer
The second wave, on the other hand, is much heavier for hospitals. The total of hospitalized patients reached a new record: 33,000, a figure higher than last spring. Compared with last spring, the medical staff is more tired and the cases of discharge or long sick leave are increasing in hospitals. This critical situation pushes the government not to loosen the blockade too quickly.
The least affected west coast
“This time the whole of France is affected,” Macron said in late October. Last spring, the health emergency was concentrated in the northeast quadrant. Today it extends throughout the territory, although there are nuances. The regions most affected are: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Burgundy-France-Comté, Hauts-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. The west coast, from Brittany to Aquitaine, was also much less affected by the virus in this second wave. Experts debate possible reasons, including proximity to the Atlantic and lower population density.
What worked?
Some epidemiologists admit: “We do not know why the circulation of the virus has withdrawn so rapidly.” Even before the closure (much lighter than the spring one), the restrictions introduced in October in the big cities certainly had an impact: the closure of bars and restaurants and then the curfew. The two weeks of fall break (between October 19 and November 2) with schools closed and many families in vacation homes were probably also accounted for.
What will happen now?
In theory, the “semi-confinement” was supposed to end on December 1, but it is already known that it will continue. Limited movements and self-certification will continue. Shops may reopen but not bars, restaurants for which there is even talk of a lockout until mid-January. Schools must follow the normal vacation schedule (closed December 19 – January 4). Only adjustment: since November, high school graduates have exceeded 50% of the lessons at Dad. The first Minister Jean castex It has already announced that life will not return to normal for many months, at least until a vaccine is available. In short, France could continue its life in semi-lockdown for weeks with some exceptions only on Christmas days.
