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ROME “At the moment there is no growth of the epidemic, but perhaps a slight decrease.” Because yesterday, Gianni rezza, General Director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health, analyzing the Italian situation in the usual update press conference, he turned on a first dim light at the end of the tunnel.
READ ALSO Covid Italia, today’s newsletter, November 17
The reduction
In fact, the data today speak of a decreasing Rt index and of “a kind of stabilization” of the positive ratio tested (today 15.44%, compared to the oscillation between 16 and 17% in recent days). A first step for which, however, it is better not to rejoice. At least not yet. In fact, the thirty-day projections say that the possibility of loosening the contagion containment measures and abandoning the classification of the regions, with a view to Christmas “depends on how we behave and if we are careful to respect the rules” . Translated, before we can start thinking about the color scalability of Regions, we need to set some goals. And the goal right now, as the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità explained in the same conference Silvio Brusaferro, is that “RT goes quickly below 1”. But with the awareness that if it does, “it means a slower growth of cases, but always a growth.”
With numbers in hand, therefore, the situation has reached a point of substantial stability (the so-called plateau) from which, however, it is now difficult to get out. In any case, yesterday, as proof of the decrease in the ratio between tested and positive cases, the new infected increased to 32,191 (on Monday there were 27,354) but they did so only thanks to 208,458 swabs made (compared to 152,000 the previous day). . However, the bulletin also highlights how admissions to intensive care units have increased by 120 units (stable data compared to last week) and, above all, deaths. Those indicated by yesterday’s report are in fact 731 dead. This figure has almost doubled compared to 7 days ago (331 deaths on November 8) and is the result of those rates that led to the closing of red zones from different regions in recent weeks.
The timid positive signs about the spread of the virus further encourage the presidents of the region who ask the government not only to reduce the parameters from 21 to 5, but also to shorten by one week – and not two – the time to assess the eventuality. improvement. Next Friday, the day the control room meets, nothing will change in the definition of the bands and the new data will help to understand whether the first seven regions for which the measurements were taken – Lombardy, Piedmont, Valle d’Aosta and Calabria, (red) Puglia and Sicily (orange) – will have stable positive data for two weeks as provided by Hope’s ordinance. Therefore, it is likely that to re-evaluate the positioning of the regions that have had better percentages only in the current week, it will be necessary to wait for the follow-up of 27. Instead, some of the regions currently in the yellow zone may deteriorate immediately and end in the band with greater closures. Like Veneto, which could turn orange while Puglia, Liguria and Basilicata could end up in the red zone.
The final evaluation, before the Christmas holidays, will take place on December 3 when the current dpcm expires. The competition between regional presidents started just in view of that appointment. Having the region still in the red zone around the holidays is a problem that every president hopes not to face. While the giants of web sales rub their hands, merchants and restaurateurs are on the warpath. Although it is too early to announce a relaxation of the measures, Palazzo Chigi is also wondering how to reopen shops, malls, bars and restaurants next month without compromising the efforts made so far and risking new and even tighter closures in January.
Last update: 10.30pm
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