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«The numbers are those. There is a slowdown in hospitalizations, but it does not prevent the health system from spiraling out of control. In two weeks, with this growth rate, in hospitals, in many regions, there will be considerable problems. Today it is no longer possible to treat patients with other pathologies as it should be, because attention is totally focused on Covid ”, says Dr. Filippo Anelli, president of the National Federation of Medical Orders (Fnomceo). Everywhere there are reports of hospitals under siege, despite the activation of new beds.
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In Rome, ambulances are blocked for a long time in front of the emergency room with patients on board, waiting for a seat to be vacated; in Lombardy it is even worse, as Antonio Pesenti, director of the Department of Anesthesia-Intensive Care of the Milan Polyclinic and coordinator of intensive care in the Crisis Unit of the Lombardy Region recounts: “We no longer have free places for Covid patients and every day we have to make them up. At 5pm, there are only two beds left, but they will probably be occupied too if they are not already. We place patients in recovery rooms of operating rooms until someone installs an extra seat. So It is the situation in real time and it has been like that for days. ”The Civil Defense, the Red Cross and the Army are installing field hospitals in many cities: in Calabria, Piedmont, Umbria, Abruzzo, Valle d’Aosta.
But what do the numbers say? While it is true that the increase in new positive cases has slowed, it is equally clear that we remain with a daily average of around 30,000. Of these, 5 percent end up in the hospital. Even subtracting discharge, however, on average another 800 beds (including intensive care) are occupied in hospitals every day due to Covid. No health system can keep up. Have not the new hospitalizations decreased? Yes, they have decreased, but not enough. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers, keeping two firmly in the background: Today there are 3,492 Covid-19 patients in intensive care and 32,536 in the medical area. In the last week, the average daily increase was 91.8 places occupied in intensive care and 700 in medical departments. In the previous week, the numbers were higher, the daily average was 118 new jobs in ICU and 1,113 in medical departments.
So it is true that there is a slowdown, but not so sustained as to ensure the system. Rather. Other numbers. Let’s do a projection in the next 14 days, until the end of the month. If the increase in hospital places occupied by Covid-19 patients remains constant, we will find 4,780 beds occupied in intensive care by Covid-19 patients, therefore, 20% more than the historical peak that was registered in Italy on April 3 . It will be said: since then the places have increased. True.
Commissioner Domenico Arcuri said: “We have 10,000 places, we have doubled them and we will reach 11,300 in the next month, compared to 3,400 hospitalized in intensive care.” But it should be remembered that not only Covid patients end up in intensive care. And Carlo Palermo, secretary of the Anaao Assomed medical union, says: “About 60 percent of these beds are occupied by patients with very serious diseases such as stroke, heart attacks, multiple trauma, shock states, sepsis and multi-organ failure, who obviously cannot be placed in other care settings. When indicating more than 11 thousand intensive care places in total, it should be specified that some 3,500 are only on paper, which can be activated in critical conditions and not immediately. Not to mention, in any case, the medical and nursing staff would not be available.
It is not better on another front: hospitalizations in the medical area (patients that are less serious but still must remain in isolation conditions): we have already passed the peak of April 4 (29,010) but there is no decisive slowdown even in hospitalizations, in two weeks we will have 42,336 Covid patients in Italian hospitals, about 45 percent more than the darkest days of the first wave. Finally, there is another element that should not be underestimated: doctors and nurses begin to fail because many have been infected or are close contacts of infected people (and therefore must remain in isolation). Since September 1, the number of positive doctors and nurses has increased by 23,000. In the wards there are more and more patients, fewer and fewer operators.
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