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OUR UPDATE
Based on regional data provided by Gores and on Istat data of the population of the Marche provinces in 2019, the province with the highest incidence of Covid-19 positives verified in Marche is Macerata, with 5,013 positives has a percentage of total residents equal to a 1.61%.
However, the situation is quite homogeneous on a regional scale, however, with a greater incidence in the center-south and less as it ascends towards the north. Which is in contradiction to the call “First wave”, when it was Pesarese that was heavily hit with a load of hundreds of victims, while for example Piceno was a province that was hardly touched. Today in Pesaro, 1.33% of the population has been positive since the beginning of the epidemic, 1.47% in Ancona, 1.60% and 1.53% in Ascoli.
The numbers of “Second wave” Autumnal, however, are much greater and perhaps the virus has spread more and more easily precisely in those more “virgin” territories, while where in spring there were a relative number of positives higher, in some way, the circulation of Covid -19 found screens that restricted their circulation.
We repeat that these are the numbers of verified cases, there is probably a non-indifferent quota of undetected asymptomatic patients. However, the magnitude of what is happening should make us think: if this percentage reaches 10%, this would indicate a proportional increase in hospitalizations and deaths. The collective effort that is being made is that of, at least dilute the number of infections over time, to allow the health system (which must be strengthened after two decades of criminal cuts) to respond to demand and continue treatment for other diseases; on the other hand, the hope is that vaccines can stop the effects of this virus as soon as possible.
UPDATES AT 6.30pm
Eight deaths in the Marches, the victims had previous pathologies. A 94 year old Saint Benedetto died in the Madonna del Soccorso.
Below is the complete Arancio 15112020 file at 6 pm
UPDATES AT 4 PM
The number of people hospitalized in the Marche region for Covid-19 has increased slightly: they are two more than on Saturday, November 14. Intensive care patients are increasing, rose to 77 (+3), almost stable in semi-intensive care (143, +1), while non-intensive hospitalizations decreased (340, -2).
The most serious hospitalized patients remained substantially stable during the last ten days, with an oscillation recorded between 201 and 224: but the current 220 is 19 more than just two days ago, when it was 201. However, this figure is also affected for dead, 9 yesterday.
Next week could be pivotal, in which we expect to see some response data regarding social distancing measures taken in the last month and a half.
Here all the current data Yellow 15112020 12 noon
OUR WEEKLY DATA IN DEPTH
The weekly analysis referred to the number of new positive cases registered in the Marche Region, in order to have a less volatile picture of what is happening.
The numbers show that what is happening at the national level is also happening in the Marches: in the last week we have seen a new increase in positives compared to the previous one, but in the last seven days this increase has slowed down compared to before.
With a metaphor: we are in the middle of the storm, the waves in the previous twenty days had risen from 10 to 20 meters, in the last they reached 22 meters, if on the contrary the previous trend had continued, it was to be expected by 25-30 meters.
but nevertheless we didn’t hit the plateau, flattening the curve, as perhaps has already happened in other regions. There is a certain probability that this phenomenon can be observed in the next week, also thanks to the social distancing measures that are beginning to have partial effect.
It should also be said that the data on positives is burdened by several factors that do not allow us to fully understand the extent of the epidemic: both because the majority of positives are asymptomatic (the only effect is home isolation) or have few symptoms, and because the swab analysis system currently you cannot quickly verify the situation due to the high number of positives.
Therefore, in the afternoon we will try to better understand the only incontrovertible fact, namely:under pressure exerted by Covid-19 on the health system (admissions to intensive, semi-intensive, non-intensive care) that seems, at least until yesterday, to show some stability.
UPDATE AT 9 AM
The Marche Region Health Service has announced that 3,819 swabs have been tested in the last 24 hours: 2,289 on the new diagnostic route and 1,530 on the cured route.
The positives are 707 in the new diagnostic route (224 in the province of Macerata, 181 in the province of Ancona, 154 in the province of Pesaro-Urbino, 83 in the province of Fermo, 59 in the province of Ascoli Piceno and 6 from outside the region).
These cases include symptomatic subjects (99 cases detected), contacts in the domestic environment (182 cases detected), close contacts of positive cases (209 cases detected), contacts in the work environment (32 cases detected), contacts in living / living environments. social (11 cases detected), contacts in the healthcare field (5 cases detected), contacts in the school / training environment (22 cases detected), screening of the health path (3 cases detected) and 2 returns from abroad. For another 142 cases, epidemiological investigations are still underway
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